· 个股论点

认为NBIS软件护城河深,非对称收益优于IREN等转型矿工。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

我不同意,软件编排(Software Orchestration)可能是最大的护城河之一,这就是为什么在我看来,$NBIS 的非对称上行潜力明显优于 $IREN。但各有所好! 我同意 $IREN 因部署的吉瓦(GW)规模略大,潜在上行空间稍高,但在利润率方面的执行风险要大得多。 关于 $IREN 未来的财报,我认为市场将痛苦地发现,Nebius 目前的编排能力和客户多样性构成了巨大的护城河。 $ORCL 作为最大的算力公司之一,据 TI 报道,其最近的建设亏损超过 1 亿美元。这主要归因于软件、GPU 编排和客户基础。内部文件显示其毛利率约为 14%(而 $NBIS 上季度为 71.2%)。 如果最大的超大规模云服务商都做不好,而人们仍指向 $CRWV 支持比特币矿工转型(尽管他们花费数十亿用于软件收购且转型耗时数年),那么你可能低估了这个巨大的护城河。 此外,软件利用率/编排的重要性比廉价电力高约 30-70 倍(我在另一条评论中算过账)。 部署的兆瓦/吉瓦规模确实给矿工带来更高的上行空间,但当 $NBIS 拥有最高非对称回报和产能时,去猜测这些比特币矿工能否转向高利润率是没有意义的,这是我的观点。

英文原文

I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own! I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins. When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat. $ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter). If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating. Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment). Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.

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