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  1. 个股论点 $LPTH

    传闻美将袭伊朗,建议做多战争股及石油股,看好LPTH。

    @DesingerGem 突发:“据路透社报道,美国可能在24小时内袭击伊朗” “美国袭击迫在眉睫” 在实际事件发生前,极度做多(omega long)战争概念股和石油股。 $LPTH 将是这一事件的巨大受益者。 https://t.co/byzGakiNrN

    英文原文

    @DesingerGem BREAKING: "US may attack Iran within the next 24 hours, per Reuters" "US ATTACK IS IMMINENT" Go omega long on war stocks and oil before the actual event. $LPTH is a huge beneficiary of this. https://t.co/byzGakiNrN

  2. 个股论点 $LPTH

    LPTH垄断美军专用玻璃供应,具极高战略价值。

    @Jorge89767947 $LPTH 是唯一的单一来源供应商,服务于大多数主要美国国防承包商,从洛克希德·马丁的“毒刺”导弹到 Andruil 的“幽灵”无人机。它垄断了五角大楼要求的、用于美军建设并减少对中国依赖的美国制造和认证的玻璃。市值也许能到 $100 亿+?

    英文原文

    @Jorge89767947 $LPTH a sole source contractor majority of major US defense contractors from Lockheed's Stinger Missiles to Andruil's Ghost drones. It's the monopoly over US made and approved glass that the Pentagon requires for US army buildout + reduce dependence on China. Maybe $10B+?

  3. 杂谈

    感谢粉丝推荐并分享自己研究后对某公司的喜爱。

    @JLIRL20 特别感谢(S/O) @WaltzDisneyz。我在之前的帖子中请求大家分享股票代码(ticker drops),结果我研究了这家公司并非常喜欢它。 https://t.co/V2qQiIe6hd

    英文原文

    @JLIRL20 S/O to @WaltzDisneyz. Was asking for ticker drops in my previous posts and I ended up researching the company + liked in a ton. https://t.co/V2qQiIe6hd

  4. 个股论点 $AXTI$LPTH$ONDS

    LPTH获军工巨头青睐且具垄断优势,有望成百亿公司

    感谢。我发现 $LPTH 基本上就是美国的 $AXTI,所有顶级军工承包商,包括 Andruil、Lockheed、L3Harris、$ONDS 等都在转向他们。由于拥有美国海军研究实验室的授权,他们在此领域拥有垄断地位。完全可以预见这将成为一家市值超 100 亿美元的公司。

    英文原文

    Appreciate it. I found that $LPTH was the US $AXTI basically and all the top military contractors from Andruil, Lockheed, L3Harris, $ONDS, and everyone were switching to them. And they have the monopoly over it bc of US naval research lab licenses. Can easily see this being a $10B+ company down the road.

  5. 个股论点 $LPTH

    确认Andruil使用LPTH,利好该股

    @pennycheck 好吧,那更好,Andruil 确认是 $LPTH 的用户 lol

    英文原文

    @pennycheck Okay then, even better that Andruil is a confirmed user of $LPTH lol

  6. 个股论点 $AXTI$LPTH

    LPTH垄断锗替代材料黑钻石,受益于中国出口管制,具早期Alpha机会。

    $LPTH 确实令人惊叹。他们垄断了一种关键原材料的替代方案,而中国刚刚对该材料实施了出口管制。 中国生产全球约 60-70% 的锗(Germanium),并实施了出口管制。而 Lightpath 恰好拥有唯一的替代方案(类似于 $AXTI 的磷化铟(InP)技术)。 他们拥有名为黑钻石(Black Diamond)的专有材料(硫系玻璃(Chalcogenide glass)),并独家获得了美国海军研究实验室(U.S. Naval Research Laboratory)的授权。 黑钻石的性能堪比锗,但完全不含锗。 雷神(Raytheon)、洛克希德·马丁(Lockheed)和 L3Harris 可能会将其导弹/无人机项目从中国的供应链转向 LightPath 的黑钻石。在 6 亿美元市值下,这是极早期的 Alpha 机会。

    英文原文

    $LPTH is genuinely incredible. They own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off. China produces ~60-70% of the world’s Germanium + just export controlled. And Lightpath happens to have the only workaround (similar to InP with $AXTI). They own the proprietary material called Black Diamond (Chalcogenide glass) with the exclusive license with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. Black Diamond = performs like Germanium but uses zero Germanium. Raytheon, Lockheed, and L3Harris will likely switch from Chinese supply chains to LightPath’s Black Diamond for their missile/drone programs. This is incredibly early alpha at a $600m MC.

  7. 个股论点 $LPTH$ONDS$UMAC

    建仓$LPTH,因其是中国锗玻璃在美唯一替代,获多家军工巨头采用。

    我建仓了 $LPTH(市值6.21亿美元)。 Lightpath 非常出色。 每一种现代热武器(导弹、无人机)都需要锗玻璃,而中国拥有该市场70%的份额。 LPTH 是唯一拥有 Black Diamond 技术的美国替代方案: 用户包括: - $ONDS - L3Harris - Lockheed - Andruil(可能) - $UMAC - RTX/Raytheon 或 Northrop Grumman(用于最近1820万美元的合同)。 Ondas:Iron Drone Raider(反无人机拦截无人机)和 Optimus 使用 LPTH 的热成像相机核心。 L3Harris SPEIR 在阿利·伯克级驱逐舰上使用 Lightpath 的红外相机组件。 Lockheed Martin 毒刺导弹和 M-SHORAD 使用 Lightpath 的导弹寻标器光学元件。 Anduril 可能在 The Ghost(自主无人机)上使用 Lightpath 的非制冷长波红外(LWIR)相机。 Unusual Machines 在攻击无人机上使用 Lightpath 的模制热透镜。 RTX 或 Northrop(其中之一)在先进战术吊舱或下一代导弹寻标器中使用 Lightpath 的红外相机系统。 这实际上是现代武器和无人机所需的唯一西方替代方案。 Lightpath 现在拥有惊人的资产负债表: ~7500-8000万美元现金(负债-500万美元) -FY 2025 营收3720万美元。FY 2026 预估~6160万美元 - FY 2025 毛利率27.2%,FY 2026 年底预计35-40%。 - FY 2025 积压订单~4000万美元。FY 2026 积压订单9000万美元+。 他们已售罄。利润率在扩张。而且大多数顶级美国国防承包商现在都将 Lightpath 作为中国锗玻璃供应链的西方替代品。 绝对是一家不可思议的公司,我不常这么说。 因此,我个人做多 Lightpath,因为军工承包商未来将依赖他们生产先进武器。

    英文原文

    I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M). Lightpath is incredible. Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%) LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond Users? - $ONDS - L3Harris - Lockheed - Andruil (likely) - $UMAC - RTX/Raytheon or Northrop Grumman for the most recent $18.2M contract. Ondas: Iron Drone Raider(counter-UAS interceptor drone) and Optimus uses LPTH for Thermal Camera Cores. L3Harris SPEIR uses Lightpath for Infrared Camera Assemblies on Arleigh Burke-class Destroyers. Lockheed Martin Stinger Missles and M-SHORAD uses Lightpath for Missile Seeker Optics. Anduril likely uses Lightpath for The Ghost (Autonomous Drone) for Uncooled LWIR (Long Wave Infrared) Cameras. Unusual Machines uses Lightpath for Attack Drones (Molded Thermal Lenses). RTX or Northrop (one of them) uses Lightpath for Advanced Tactical Pods or Next-Gen Missile Seekers suing Infrared Camera Systems. This literally is the only Western alternative required for modern weaponry and drones. Lightpath now has an amazing balance sheet: ~$75–80 million in cash (with -$5M debt) -FY 2025 $37.2 Million. FY 2026 est. ~$61.6 Million - FY 2025 Gross 27.2%, FY 2026 35-40% by year-end. - FY 2025 Backlog ~$40 Million. FY 2026 Backlog $90+ Million. They are sold out. Expanding margins. And majority of the top US defence contractors now use Lightpath as a Western alternative to China's supply chain of Germanium glass. Absolutely incredible company, I don't say this very often. So I personally went long on Lightpath as military contractors will rely on them in the future for advanced weapons.

  8. 个股论点 $AMZN$ONDS$UAVS

    驳斥ONDS观点,揭露UAVS通过可转债套利及虚假宣传收割散户。

    认为$ONDS的高行权价可转债性质截然不同,这种观点简直是妄想。 $UAVS将超过100%市值的控制权交给了套利投资者,他们可以在$1.23的价格(低于当前股价50%)增发价值1亿美元的股票,并直接赚取差价。 这只有在散户买入该套利头寸时才有效。正如我们所见,该公司为了诱导散户买入,无所不用其极,甚至发布诸如与$AMZN合作的虚假新闻稿。

    英文原文

    $ONDS convertible note at a higher strike is wildly different and this is a delusional take. $UAVS gave control to arbitrage investors of over 100% the marketcap where they can mint $100 million worth of shares at $1.23 (-50% under current prices) and just pocket the difference. This only works if retail buys into this arbitrage. And as we’ve seen the same company would do anything from putting out fake press releases like $AMZN partnerships to get retail to buy.

  9. 杂谈 $AAPL$SFTBY

    调侃特朗普可能将苹果与软银混淆。

    @AbBanglawala 特朗普本人? 不过话说回来,他可能把苹果(Apple)错认成了软银(SoftBank),谁知道呢。

    英文原文

    @AbBanglawala Trump himself? Then again he might be mistaking Apple for SoftBank, who knows.

  10. 业绩复盘 $AIRO$LPTH$SPY$VLN

    博主分享今日逢低买入LPTH、AIRO和VLN的操作。

    @MRonvelwala 我个人在今天 $LPTH 和 $AIRO 下跌 4% 时买入,并在 $VLN 下跌 8% 时买入。 看起来 SPY 下跌了 0.8%,因此由恐惧带来的良好机会很多。

    英文原文

    @MRonvelwala I personally bought $LPTH and $AIRO on 4% drop today and $VLN on the -8% drop. Looks like SPY is down -.8% so lot of good opportunities out there from fear.

  11. 个股论点 $AMZN$UAVS

    警告散户远离$UAVS,揭露其融资结构旨在向套利者转移财富。

    警告散户投资者: 在22日的投票结果出来之前,远离 $UAVS。 我在研究无人机股票推荐时,发现了SEC文件,其中显示不透明的董事会投票决定将财富从散户转移给套利者。 这是一家无人机公司,因为被美国陆军工程兵团(USACE)、北约(KFOR)和其他武装部队使用,且最近有大量新闻报道,从而获得了散户的关注。 我原本对这个市值7500万美元的公司作为多头标的感到非常兴奋,因为他们将农业应用场景转型为无人机国防承包商。 然而,2025年11月7日的文件是一次巨大的稀释核弹。 基本上,他们在去年的G轮融资中,将整个公司卖给了套利投资者,赋予这些人以1.23美元(比当前市价低75%)的价格购买1亿美元股份的权利。 早在2021年,同一批G轮投资者散布了关于与 $AMZN 合作的虚假信息,诱使散户买入 -> 然后向这些投资者抛售股份(Bonitas Research指出该新闻是假的)。现在整个公司由Alpha Capital Anstalt等相同的套利投资者控制。 这些公司也控制着股价(可以轻松将市值推高至3亿,然后在散户看到价格上涨并买入时进行稀释)。 凭借这一条款,他们现在有效地控制了100%以上的整个公司,他们可以发行新股 -> 获利50%以上 -> 重复。我在研究无人机股票时差点就掉进这个陷阱。 简而言之:买入这只股票实际上是在向套利投资者捐款。董事会投票支持这种结构令人警觉。 股票长期来看是正和博弈,如果论点方向正确,每个人都能受益。在这种情况下,由于当前的融资结构,每个散户投资者都会输。

    英文原文

    Warning to retail investors: Stay away from $UAVS until the result of the vote on the 22nd. I was researching drone stock recs, and found SEC filings where the shady board voted for a wealth transfer from retail to arbitrage. It's a drone company that's been getting retail attention because it's used by: US Army USACE, NATO (KFOR), and other armed forces with a lot of news published recently. I was super excited about this potential long for a $75M company, since they pivoted their agricultural use case to drone defense contractor. However, the November 7, 2025 Filing was a massive dilution nuke. Basically they sold their entire company to arbitrage investors last year in their Series G round, giving these guys the right to buy $100M shares at $1.23 or 75% under market price current is. Back in 2021, the same Series G investors put out false information about an $AMZN partnership to get retail to buy -> dump shares on them (Bonitas Research pointed out this news was fake). The entire company is now controlled by the same arbitrage investors like Alpha Capital Anstalt. These companies control the price too (can easily make this $300M then dilute when retail sees price go up and buys in) With this clause, they have effective control of 100%+ of the entire company now where they can issue new shares -> profit 50%+ -> repeat. I almost fell for it while looking into drone stocks. TLDR: Buying this stock is effectively donating money to the arbitrage investors. The fact the board voted for this structure is alarming. Stocks positive sum game long term where everyone benefits if the thesis is directionally right. In this case, with the current financing structure, every retail investor loses.

  12. 个股论点 $UAVS

    批评$UAVS董事会授权套利者控盘以欺诈散户。

    我措辞稍显强硬,但请等到22日再看$1亿授权结果。但$UAVS董事会投票通过此事,通过赋予套利投资者对整个公司的控制权并无限期出售其股票以免费获取当前价值25%(即1.23美元)来欺诈散户投资者,这简直太有毒了。

    英文原文

    I worded this a bit strongly, but wait until 22nd for $100m authorization outcome. But the fact the $UAVS board voted for this sht to scam retail investors by giving arbitrage investors control of the entire company and endlessly sell their sales for a free 25% of current value or $1.23 is just so toxic.

  13. 个股论点

    警告远离某股,指其通过认股权证向套利者让渡控制权,严重损害散户利益。

    天哪,快远离!我之前仅从科技/金融角度(这确实非常强劲)来看待它,而非稀释效应。这家公司简直是在诈骗散户投资者。他们基本上将公司的控制权(超过8800万美元的认股权证)交给了套利投资者,后者可以随时以低于市场价25%的价格买入。散户投资者将被套利,直到他们向这家公司注入8800万美元。

    英文原文

    HOLY CRAP STAY AWAY, I was only looking at it from tech/financials angle (Which is extremely strong) rather than dilution. This company is just scamming retail investors. They basically gave control of their entire company (over $88M USD+ in warrants) to arbitrage investors who can buy any time 25% below market size. Retail investors will just get arbitraged until they pile $88M into this company.

  14. 个股论点 $UAVS

    博主认为$UAVS是隐藏宝石并计划建仓。

    @KAnalyser1 哇,$UAVS 是一颗隐藏的宝石。我会建仓,谢谢。

    英文原文

    @KAnalyser1 Woah $UAVS is a hidden gem. I’ll take positions thanks

  15. 个股论点 $LPTH

    博主强烈看好LPTH,建议超配做多。

    @WaltzDisneyz $LPTH 的表现令人难以置信,我很少这么说。我会对此进行超重的多头配置。

    英文原文

    @WaltzDisneyz $LPTH is incredible, I don’t say this often. I would go super long on this.

  16. 个股论点 $VLN

    认为$VLN受做市商算法操控,短期价格无关紧要,市场终将修正。

    我对 $VLN 的看法是,这很可能是做市商(MM)算法在 $2.5 进行的打击防御(strike defense),因为期权链上只有 $2.5 和 $5 的合约。(你可以看到上周五该价格被锁定数小时)。 短期价格并不重要,因为市场最终会自我修正,尤其是在做市商完成对冲、伽马(Gamma)解除或如果数据来源在下一次财报中修正从而停止做空之后。

    英文原文

    My thoughts on $VLN is that it’s probably MM algo strike defense at $2.5 since option chain is only $2.5 and $5. (You can see it pinned to that price last Friday for hours). Short term price doesn’t matter because markets correct itself over time, esp after MMs finish hedging, gamma unwinds, or we stop seeing shorting if data source corrects next earnings.

  17. 个股论点 $APPL$INTC

    暂无苹果投资英特尔公开消息,但特朗普或知情。

    @TheEEInvestor 目前没有任何关于 $APPL 投资 $INTC 的公开披露或新闻。但我认为特朗普作为现任总统可能比其他人知道得更多,而且他在直播采访中倾向于说出一些不该说的话。

    英文原文

    @TheEEInvestor There's no public disclosures or news at all regarding $APPL investments in $INTC yet. But I'd say Trump probably knows a bit more than others as the sitting President and is prone to say more things than he should in his live interviews.

  18. 杂谈 $AAPL$NVDA

    特朗普直播称苹果与英伟达已介入某事。

    @Aspie_Supremacy 特朗普在他几小时前的直播采访中措辞是“苹果进去了,英伟达也进去了”。https://t.co/65lMCoK3cY

    英文原文

    @Aspie_Supremacy Trump worded it was "Apple went in, Nvidia went in" from his live interview few hours ago. https://t.co/65lMCoK3cY

  19. 个股论点 $APPL$INTC

    特朗普泄露苹果投资英特尔,致INTC盘后暴涨

    如果你想知道为什么 $INTC 盘后暴涨: 特朗普在一次采访中意外泄露了 $APPL 已投资的消息。https://t.co/1B8JMOc5BV

    英文原文

    If you’re wondering why $INTC is flying after hours: Trump accidentally leaked in an interview that $APPL invested. https://t.co/1B8JMOc5BV

  20. 方法论

    博主分享公开分析过程的理念,认为股市长期是正和博弈。

    谢谢!我尝试在分析股票时发布自己的 TLDR(太长不看)思考过程和分析,以便大家能学习并自行操作。我不相信信息壁垒,因为除非做期权,否则股票并非零和博弈。长期来看,这是一个正和博弈,如果投资逻辑方向正确,每个人都能受益。

    英文原文

    Thanks! I try to post my own TLDR thought process and analysis when I look at a stock so people can learn and do the same themselves. I don’t believe in gatekeeping info since stocks aren’t a zero sum game unless you do options. It’s a positive sum game long term where everyone benefits if the thesis is directionally right.

  21. 杂谈

    博主表示因缺乏生物技术领域知识,无法提供相关见解。

    @dcdcwif 我很想补充一些个人见解,但遗憾的是生物技术(biotech)领域超出了我的专业知识范围,因此我的评论无法提供任何有价值的信息。

    英文原文

    @dcdcwif I’d love to add any personal insights but unfortunately biotech is outside my domain knowledge so my commentary can’t really add any value.

  22. 个股论点 $SOUN

    SOUN 估值已充分反映,虽基本面稳健但上行空间有限。

    我对 $SOUN 的看法是,在 45 亿美元市值下,其极端溢价已 largely priced in(大幅反映在股价中)。 2.69 亿美元现金,无债务。但季度亏损 1450 万美元(1.05 亿美元只是 optics(表面现象/会计处理)),基于 1.7 亿美元远期营收(fw revenue)实现 68% 的同比增长表现尚可。 这是一个稳健的做多标的,但在 23 倍远期市盈率下上行空间有限。谁知道呢,我可能错了。

    英文原文

    My opinion on $SOUN is that it’s already largely priced in with extreme premiums at $4.5b. $269m cash, debt free. But $14.5M loss q/q ($105m is just optics), growing revenue 68% y/y off $170m fw revenue is decent. It’s a solid long but upside is more limited with 23x fwd sales. Who knows I could be wrong

  23. 个股论点 $ALMU$AXTI$POET$RKLB

    POET/ALMU因周期极早需等待,建议6个月后建仓POET。

    我对 $POET 和 $ALMU 的看法是,输入光互连(InP)的替代方案时间框架在2-3年,即2028-2029年。它们没有超大规模数据中心供应商(hyperscaler)的资质,也不在现代专用集成电路(ASIC)架构中,所以 $POET 提前了6个月,$ALMU 提前了1年。像 $RKLB 这样的散户宠儿通常也提前一年,但如果你等得够久,方向是对的。我可能会在6个月后买入 $POET,$ALMU 则更晚一些,但如果 $AXTI 的情况变得严重,它们可能会加速。所以两者都是很好的多头标的,只是由于处于周期极早期,这是一场等待游戏。

    英文原文

    My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029. They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early. Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough. I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked. So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle

  24. 个股论点 $AIRO$AVAV$MRVL$POET$RCAT$UMAC

    分析UMAC基本面优势,对比AIRO,认为两者均有上行空间。

    很棒的选择。$UMAC 是一个很好的长线标的。我之前研究时选择了 $AIRO,但很难得有一家市值 5.2 亿美元、拥有 1.33 亿美元现金且无债务、毛利率 40%、同比增长 55%+ 的制造商。它是通过 $RCAT 向 $AVAV 供货的供应商。类似于 $POET 和 $MRVL 的情况。因此上行空间很大,我个人仍然更喜欢 $AIRO,但各有所好!

    英文原文

    Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has - $133m cash, no debt - 40% gross margins - growing 55%+ y/y As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation. So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!

  25. 个股论点 $VVX

    分析$VVX估值偏低但增长慢,适合长线持有,作者因缺乏耐心未选。

    研究了 $VVX,看起来是个扎实的价值投资标的,但我的观点是它并非那种爆发力极强的“火箭股”选择。 - 8.5% 的毛利率(大宗商品属性),营收达 44.2 亿美元。但净利率仅为 1.8%。 - 鉴于其债务状况,10-11 倍的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)属于正常水平,因为其增长率约为 3%。 - 由于合并原因,净现金为 -9.8 亿美元。 所以超额收益(Alpha)来自于每股收益(EPS)的增长,我对此进行了研究,部分分析师预测其同比增长 24%。今年再降息 2-3 次带来的低利率环境也将对其大有帮助。 因此,如果你有两年的等待耐心,它似乎被低估了,但我更没耐心!

    英文原文

    Looked into $VVX, seems like a solid value invest but my option is that it’s not exactly a moonshot type pick - 8.5% gross margin (commodity status) but off $4.42B rev. But with 1.8% net margin - 10-11x fwd earnings is standard given its debt, since its growing ~3% - net cash is -$980m bc of their merger So the alpha comes in if it grows EPS which I’ve looked into and some analysts are projecting 24% y/y. Lower interest rates from another 2-3x rate cuts this year also helps them a lot. So seems undervalued if you have a 2 year waiting horizon but I’m more impatient!

  26. 个股论点 $MSTR

    作者持有MSTR多头,认为其估值修复且风险降低,但指出直接投资比特币更安全。

    是的,我持有多头 $MSTR。自从其市值接近净资产价值(mnav) 1倍以来表现不错。而且由于比特币国库公司最近未被从 MSCI 指数中剔除,风险已降低。 我从 $156 就开始持有,目前仍比高点下跌 60-70%+,在我看来是不错的反弹标的。但当然,直接投资比特币更安全,因为国库公司存在大幅低于 mnav 的风险,就像当年的 Grayscale 一样。

    英文原文

    Yeah I’m long $MSTR. It’s great since mnav went closer to 1 again. And it got derisked since Bitcoin treasury companies weren’t delisted from MSCI recently. I’ve been in it since $156, it’s still down 60-70%+ from highs and a good recovery play imo. But of course Bitcoin directly is a lot safer since risks are always there from treasury companies going way under mnav like Grayscale back in the day.

  27. 业绩复盘 $AXTI$CRDO$INTC$OSS$VLN

    博主分享近期选股大幅上涨,并征集5倍股研究标的。

    一月份太疯狂了。 毫不夸张,我的许多选股在过去几天涨幅超过60%。 图表中甚至没有包含 $AXTI +60% 或 $VLN +60%。 更不用说像 $CRDO 25%+ 或 Intel 25%+ 这样较小的涨幅。 如果需要更多5倍股的研究标的,如果你有想法或投资论点,请告诉我。 https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87

    英文原文

    January is wild. Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days. Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts. While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+. Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87

  28. 杂谈

    建议现在是去日本度假的好时机。

    @zephyr_z9 可操作的洞察:现在正是去日本度假的好时机。

    英文原文

    @zephyr_z9 Actionable insights: it’s now a great time for a vacation in Japan

  29. 个股论点 $SMCI

    作者买入SMCI并看多,认为高盛报告低估了其利润率扩张潜力。

    我也在$28.3美元买入了一些$SMCI。一直在做波段交易。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师报告充其量极其懒惰。SMCI将2026年的营收预期上调至360亿美元,同比增长超过50%+。这部分源于升级周期带来的硬件成本增加。但他们似乎不理解短期定价策略以锁定初始数字租赁承诺(DLC)周期,利润率会随时间扩张。他们认为预测的9.5%左右的毛利率是永久性的,但实际上它们应该会随时间增加。在我看来,这是一个很好的长线机会,我不同意其他分析师的观点。SMCI看起来定价错误。

    英文原文

    I bought $SMCI as well at $28.3 as well. Have been swing trading it. Goldman Sachs's analyst report extremely lazy at best. SMCI raised revenue growth over 50%+ to $36B revenue 2026. Part of that is increased hardware costs from upgrade cycle. But they don't seem to understand short term margin pricing to lock in initial DLC cycles, where margins expand over time. They think the forecasted gross margins like 9.5% is permanent, but they should increase over time. Great long here IMO, disagree with the other analysts. SMCI looks mispriced.

  30. 个股论点 $META$WMT

    对比META与WMT估值,指出市场存在定价错误。

    他们的广告业务正在增长 -> 自由现金流(FCF)足以支付任何资本支出(Capex)。上季度FCF超过100亿美元,但所有人却对支出感到恐慌。 $META 同比增长26%,远期市盈率(Forward P/E)为18.9倍。 $WMT 的增长与通胀持平,远期市盈率却超过40倍。 目前市场存在一些定价错误。

    英文原文

    They're growing ads -> FCF would pay for any capex. FCF was $10B+ Last quarter yet everyone was scared for their lives on spend. $META is growing 26% Y/Y and their forward P/E is 18.9X. $WMT is growing in line with inflation with a forward P/E of 40x+. There's just some mispricing in the market right now