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围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 34 / 45 页
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NBIS虽脱离基本面但获MSCI大额流入，强烈建议买入。
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS 目前与基本面严重脱节，且我们在短短一周内获得了 MSCI 指数基金数千万至低十亿级别的资金流入。这不仅是买入，更是极其强烈的买入信号！话虽如此，目前大多数资产都在全线暴跌。
英文原文
@YodaStockInvest $NBIS is incredibly detached from fundamentals right now and we have MSCI few hundred million-low billion inflow in a week. Not just a buy but incredibly strong buy! That being said most assets are dropping like flies across the board right now.
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分析NBIS高增长与融资优势，认为综合估值被低估。
我认为你的评论正好指出了 $NBIS 增长有多疯狂：从本季度1.46亿美元营收跃升至明年单季度21亿美元以上。 因此，我们应基于 $MSFT 合同（约190亿美元，5年）、$META（30亿美元，5年）、常规客户（Cursor、Shopify等）及政府合同来审视其未来增长（明年营收），而非当前数据。 他们像 AWS 一样提供全栈 AI 云；Nebius 获取 GPU 和基础设施初始资金的方式是股份销售（可转换票据，在138美元估值下稀释40亿美元）及随时出售2500万股。这远比 $CRWV 那样承担数十亿9%-10%利息更优，因为后者会随时间直接损害利润率。 这立即为其资产负债表增加数十亿（目前现金47亿美元），用于购买 GPU 等。 然而，规模化所需的大部分现金来自合同营收，$NBIS 毛利率达50-70%，预计 EBIT 为20-30%，是利润率最高的新型云厂商之一。 话说回来，若计入现有稀释（10%+可转换票据），再看47亿美元现金、来自 Clickhouse 等投资组合资产的70多亿美元净资产值(NAV)，以及明年80亿美元预计年化经常性收入(ARR)及其利润率，它看起来完全被低估。 但若仅看本季度营收，它看起来则被高估。
英文原文
I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter. So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue. They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time. This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc. However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds. That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued. But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.
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NBIS股价脱离基本面，宏观抛售属误杀，当前估值极具吸引力。
我可以99.9%地向你保证，$NBIS 80亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的预期在几个月前并未被计入股价，分析师/市场当时的预期约为20亿美元（约2-3个月前）。 而现在我们的交易价格低于$MSFT 交易宣布后的水平（约90-100美元）。 考虑到190亿美元的交易和收入爬坡，像Northland这样的看多机构分析师曾预测40亿美元ARR。看多派FinX（包括我自己）随着明年下半年另一笔超大规模云厂商交易的达成，将预期上调至60亿-70亿美元。 随后宣布80亿美元中位ARR至90亿美元，产能达2.5 GW（人们一直说$IREN 在2.8-~3.2 GW方面拥有巨大护城河），以及在同一季度意外宣布与$META 的交易（叠加$MSFT 交易），完全是个惊喜。 然而，财报后整体下跌26%是宏观因素导致的无差别抛售，并非因为上述第1、2、3、4点关于个股预期的原因。 重点是$NBIS 股价目前完全脱离了基本面，这次抛售简直是个笑话。
英文原文
I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago). And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100). Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year. Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise. However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections. The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.
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CRWV和ORCL的债务问题不影响NBIS，但财报前抛售剧烈。
@soulbiri1 $CRWV 和 $ORCL 在地理上都与 OpenAI 存在单一依赖关系，因此它们自身的债务问题不应影响 $NBIS。不过，正如你指出的那样，在财报发布前看到相关数据和分析师预测时，抛售行情确实令人咋舌。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Both $CRWV and $ORCL are geographically monogamous with OpenAI so their own debt problems shouldn’t affect $NBIS. But yeah sell-off was wild to watch when you point out the numbers and analyst projections before earnings.
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NBIS财报数据大幅超预期却暴跌26%，令人费解。
我想知道市场在 $NBIS 上到底抽了什么。 财报发布情况如下： 1. 最乐观的分析师预测年度经常性收入(ARR)为 40 亿美元。 2. 实际表现超出该数字 100%，预计达到 80 亿美元。 3. 签约产能指引超出 150% 以上，达到 2.5 GW。 4. 宣布与 $META 达成意外的 30 亿美元合同。 5. 股价暴跌 26%。
英文原文
I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS. Goes into earnings: 1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR 2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected 3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW 4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META 5. Drops 26%
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管理层若确认Lake站点泳池派对，CIFR将获支持。
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage 如果管理层确认不排除在 Lake 站点举办泳池派对，$CIFR 将获得大量支持（包括我在内）。
英文原文
@accounting_ds @rftylerpage There will be a lot of support behind $CIFR (myself included) if we get a confirmation from the executive team that they're not ruling out a pool party from the Lake site.
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11月24日MSCI指数大幅流入$NBIS，虽金额未定但利好显著。
@soulbiri1 显然，11月24日 MSCI 指数对 $NBIS 的流入量在数千万美元至十亿美元区间。虽然无法确定确切数字，但这对资金流入帮助很大。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Apparently it's few hundred million inflow to low billion range for the MSCI inflow into $NBIS on Nov 24th. Can't really determine the exact number, but it helps with inflow a lot.
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NBIS容量售罄印证全栈基建高需求，预计随大厂扩产再次售罄。
对于 $NBIS 而言，这验证了全栈基础设施(Infrastructure)的高需求，而非限制。他们拥有 2.5 GW 的合同容量，且当前容量已售罄。产能爬坡反映了其 70-90 亿美元 ARR（年度经常性收入）的预估。同样，他们可以签订更多合同以增加 ARR，我预计他们会再次售罄，尤其是 Anthropic 正在建设 500 亿美元的数据中心(DC)，而 $GOOGL 上周也在建设 400 亿美元的 DC。
英文原文
For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation. They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate. Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.
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NBIS暴跌后机构逆势增持，基本面强劲，维持$400目标价。
Nebius ($NBIS) 上月暴跌 -33.61%，市值跌至 210 亿美元。 尽管如此，最新的 13F 文件数据显示 $NBIS 的机构持股比例上升： · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) Fintel 的数据则更接近 ~46.3%。 Nebius 是一家市值 210 亿美元的全栈新云(Neocloud)服务商： · 远期年度经常性收入(Forward ARR) 达 70-90 亿美元（同比增长 700%+），EBIT 利润率 30%，为 $MSFT Azure、$META | 从 Cursor 到 Shopify 的企业 | 以及政府提供动力。 · 现金超 47 亿美元，投资组合公司净资产价值(NAV) 超 70 亿美元，这些公司支撑着 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 正如上月所料，机构开始意识到这种一代人一次的增长机遇，因为新云(Neocloud)是 AI 数据中心建设及 Mag7 AI 算力的核心。 Nebius 的机构持股比例一直较低 (<28%)，这源于其非典型的 IPO 方式。对于高价值公司，机构持股通常在 60-80% 之间。 因此，我们看到机械性抛压 + 散户投降 + 保证金清算 -> 通过暗池/大宗交易 -> 机构在低位吸筹。 这种吸筹模式并未改变，我们之前在 Robinhood (S-st) 上也见过同样的故事，其机构持股现已达 74.62%，此前股价从 $20 涨至 $150。 非理性的恐惧和投降是机构从散户手中吸筹的方式。近期的下跌是股价变化，而非基本面恶化。$NBIS 的 1 年目标价仍为 $400。 当远期增长支撑市值预测时，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap. Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase: · 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%) with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%. Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with: · $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments. · $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute. The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%. So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation- > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices. This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150. Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.
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分析NBIS因财务结构具隔离性，高波动下部分抛售逻辑存疑。
是的，我在另一条推文中提到过信贷收紧以及来自 OpenAI 的传染效应，但 $NBIS 因其强劲的资产负债表和可转换票据结构，在这些方面似乎是最具隔离性的。这主要是非针对性的板块抛售，叠加主要影响 $CRWV、$ORCL 及相关公司如 $APLD 的结构性因素。但鉴于 Nebius 具有高贝塔值，其股价可能在一周内从 130 美元跌至 90 美元，但也可能在短时间内回到同一价格。如果从 GPU 折旧的看空论点来看，许多其他公司如 $CIFR 也是孤立的，因为它们只做数据中心托管(colocation)，所以很多抛售说不通。
英文原文
Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure. It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time. If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.
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作者看好NBIS反弹，建议买入3-5月看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 鉴于每个人都值得被爱，我也会去接 $NBIS 这把下落的飞刀（Omoroi）。3月至5月的看涨期权更安全，但我预计 Weebius 会恢复！
英文原文
@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love. March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!
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因NBIS股价下跌，计划买入3股。
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS 又跌了几个百分点，也许是时候买入 3 股了。
英文原文
@dottomato @babyfolio $NBIS がさらに数パーセント下落したので、そろそろ 3 株買う頃かもしれない
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TSSI暴跌后若仍依附DELL供应链，或是买入良机。
哇，太恶心了——$TSSI 暴跌 -42.69%，抱歉如果你持有该股。这很可能是数据中心板块抛售的一部分，且看来他们因运营失误导致业绩不及预期。 我有一段时间没关注它了，但如果他们仍在搭 $DELL 的便车，那么这可能是一个不错的买入机会。未来营收不少，包括 2026 年 Q1-Q2 来自 $SMCI 的订单。SMCI 也提到了积压订单的延迟。此外，随着数据中心建设，$DELL 也有大量积压订单。 市场也重挫了 $CRWV，原因是建设短期延迟。
英文原文
Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders. I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout. Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.
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关注APLD高息发债风险，认为NBIS等公司资产负债表健康。
@TalentActivity 实际上，我可能还需要重新审视一下与 $CRWV 相关的承包商，特别是 $APLD，如果他们正在以 10% 的收益率出售债券（刚刚来自彭博社的消息）。 $NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 的资产负债表仍然健康。
英文原文
@TalentActivity Actually I probably need to revisit this one more time in terms of the contractors with $CRWV, namely $APLD if they're selling bonds at 10% yield (just now from Bloomberg). $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF balance sheets are still healthy.
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基于已确认交易对Neoclouds个股排名，建议规避高债低利标的。
在获得更多财报和交易背景后，我可能会这样对“新云”（Neoclouds）进行排名。 仅基于容量建设（Capacity Buildout）的已确认交易： 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | 多家 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + 超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler） 5. $CORZ - $CRWV 我不会碰 $CRWV，因为其利息债务问题；也不碰 $ORCL，因为受 OpenAI 的传染效应以及目前建设利润率较低的影响。 我认为仅基于市场状况，目前选择已确认的高利润率+合同公司，比押注投机性的容量/高性能计算（HPC）建设转型论点更安全。
英文原文
I'd probably rank Neoclouds like this after we got more context from earnings + deals. Just based on confirmed deals from capacity buildout: 1. $NBIS - $MSFT | $META | Many 2. $CIFR - $AWS | $GOOGL 3. $WULF - $GOOGL 4. $APLD - $CRWV + Hyperscaler 5. $CORZ - $CRWV I wouldn't touch $CRWV due to interest debt or $ORCL due to contagion from OpenAI and low margins on buildout so far. I think just based on market conditions, it's safer to go with confirmed higher margin + contracts companies over speculative capacity/HPC buildout pivot arguments right now.
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新云板块因恐慌抛售与基本面脱节，建议持有以捕捉反弹。
是的，像 $CIFR 这样的新云(Neoclouds)股票在盘前走势简直惨不忍睹，而且这还是在其与 $GOOGL 的交易价格之前，盘前已下跌超过 10%。 这也假装 $AMZN 的托管中心(colocation)交易从未发生过。正如你提到的 $NBIS 的情况，正逼近其与 $MSFT 的交易前水平。由于市场崩盘+恐慌性抛售，我们看到整个板块与基本面完全脱节。 目前，我们可能正在目睹新云(Neoclouds)因保证金级联清算(margin cascading liquidations)+短期期权到期导致的机械性下行资金流。我虽然没有使用任何保证金，但鉴于 $IBKR 等经纪商的保证金使用率创历史新高，可能整个板块都存在保证金清算。 但在抛售后的反弹中错过一两个巨大的反弹日，可能会让你失去最大的恢复收益，这就是为什么在波动时期持有更好。我仍然持有 $NBIS 和其他股票，因为我对它们的基本面有信心。
英文原文
Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling. Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR. But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.
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AI股短期暴跌，但基本面改善令长期看涨。
@DivesTech “迷你恐慌”。更像是全线个股的崩盘，例如 $IREN 暴跌 38%，$ALAB 本周重挫 20.30%。但正如你所说，由于基本面改善，我对长期走势依然看涨。https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
英文原文
@DivesTech "Mini Panic". More like crash in names across the board with stocks like $IREN crashing 38% to $ALAB tanking 20.30% this week. But as you said I'm bullish too longer term due to improving fundamentals. https://t.co/KGU5qa0wf4
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机构逢低吸纳NBIS，散户因恐慌抛售。
@babyfolio 实际上，使用其他一些数据集，这一比例是 46.3%。 是的，机构正在从 $NBIS 的散户手中逢低吸纳。不过并非所有人都关注 X 平台，因此在那之外，可能有很多不了解其基本面和远期增长的群体正在恐慌性抛售。
英文原文
@babyfolio Oh it’s actually 46.3% with some other datasets. Yeah institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there’s probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don’t understand their fundamentals and forward growth https://t.co/2sRhYsKZ5Q
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NBIS因市场过度反应大跌，机构报告对其商业模式构成压力测试。
确实，这会影响市场情绪，甚至导致过度反应，正如我们目前在 $NBIS 身上看到的（例如：年化经常性收入(ARR)超预期200%+，与 $META 的意外交易，却下跌20%+）。但像摩根大通(JPM)或伯瑞(Burry)这类机构报告，确实在根本上对商业模式进行了压力测试，例如更高的借贷成本和更严格的贷款条件。
英文原文
Well it does impact market sentiment to the point of overreaction, which we're seeing with $NBIS right now. (eg. beats ARR estimates by 200%+, surprise $META deal, down 20%+) But those types of institutional reports from JPM or Burry does fundamentally stress test business models a bit eg. higher borrowing costs and stricter loans.
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AI板块遭无差别抛售，基本面改善的个股如NBIS现买入机会。
这是多种因素的混合影响： - 对高贝塔值(High-Beta) + AI 股票的无差别抛售 - 政府停摆延长 - 12 月降息概率 - 因折旧会计处理增加的做空头寸 一些像 $NBIS 这样的股票尽管创下历史新高盈利且基本面积极，仍受板块抛售影响。 另一些像 $CRWV 的股票因延迟导致远期盈利不及预期，其短期表现更易于理解。 总体而言，来自像 $CIFR（与 AWS 合作）和 $WULF（与 Anthropic 合作，今日宣布 500 亿美元建设计划）等 Neoclouds 公司的财报(ER)和更新非常积极。 如果像 NEbius 这样的股票在基本面改善的情况下被抛售，那就是买入机会。
英文原文
It's a mix of: - indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks - government shutdown extensions - rate cut December odds - increased shorts from depreciation accounting Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals. Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays. Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today. If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.
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成长股因宏观利空广泛抛售，$PYPL 作为价值股相对独立。
这是成长型/高贝塔股的广泛抛售。$PYPL 是一只价值投资类型的股票。例如： 1个月： $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ 新云/矿企 1周： $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% 这不仅仅是单只股票的问题。这是在鲍威尔关于12月降息+政府长期停摆的言论之后发生的。
英文原文
It's a broader sell-off on growth/higher beta. $PYPL is a value investing type stock. eg: 1 Month: $CRCL -36.04% $ALAB -21.4% $HIMS -28.34% $RKLB -23.07% $SMCI -30.77% $SG -27.9% $ETH -19.03% $BTC -11.86% _ Neoclouds/Miners 1 Week: $CIFR -27.64% $IREN -26.7% $BITF -22.9% $CLSK -20.89% $NBIS -20.23% $WULF -15.09% It's not just a single stock. This was after Powell's comments about Dec rate cut + extended gov shutdown.
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类比HOOD反弹，认为NBIS下跌源于恐慌，基本面仍支撑市值。
我刚刚想起 $HOOD 从 $65 跌至 $28，随后上演了一波撕裂面孔的反弹至 $150 的情景。当市场充满恐惧时，股价有时会脱离基本面。$NBIS 因“AI 泡沫”担忧而在更广泛的抛售中受累，正是如此。然而，前瞻性增长支撑了任何市值预测，这只是时间和执行力的问题。
英文原文
I just got reminded of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a face ripping rally to $150. Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets. This is happening with $NBIS when it gets caught in broader selloffs because of “AI bubble” fears. Yet the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.
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建议用杠杆博取NBIS反弹，认为其230亿市值严重低估。
@Wutarded 如果我想在这样规模的组合中承担更多风险，我会使用保证金或LEAPS（长期股权预期权）来增加杠杆。 我很确定$90-93是底部，对于$NBIS日益增长的基本面来说，230亿美元的市场规模简直是有罪（被严重低估）。
英文原文
@Wutarded I’d do margin/leaps here for more leverage if I wanted to take on more risk with that portfolio size. Pretty sure $90-93 is bottom, $23B market cap for the growing fundamentals of $NBIS is just criminal at this point.
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重申 $NBIS 核心业务与高增长逻辑，呼吁投资者在市场回调中保持信念。
如果在这次市场回调中你有一丝怀疑。 请记住这一点： $NBIS 是一家市值 240 亿美元的公司，远期年度经常性收入 (ARR) 为 80 亿美元，目标 EBITDA 利润率 30%。 Nebius 的核心业务为从 $MSFT 到 $META 的 Mag7 超大规模云服务商、从 Shopify 到 Cursor 再到埃森哲的企业，以及政府人工智能基础设施提供动力。 他们拥有 100 亿美元以上的净资产价值 (NAV)，其超增长投资组合公司赋能了 Cloudflare、Tiktok、Tesla、Netflix 和 Anthropic。 当然，Nebius 同比增长 700%+，这在从季度收入 1.25 亿美元到仅 1 年内达到 20 亿美元+的过程中几乎闻所未闻。 这家公司处于整个人工智能建设浪潮的中心，股价为 $93，有望成为下一家市值 1000 亿美元+的公司。 不要让广泛的抛售影响你的信念。
英文原文
If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction. Remember this: $NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins. Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure. They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic. And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year. This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next $100B+ company. Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.
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反驳死扛泡沫论，强调$NBIS基本面强劲且估值合理。
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG 在美联储收紧货币时持有市值200亿美元但零收入的量子计算公司，这才是“死扛泡沫破裂”(Bag holding a bubble burst)。 而不是持有像 $NBIS 这样年营收增长700%+、年经常性收入(ARR)达80亿美元、EBITDA利润率20-30%、持有约60亿美元以上净资产(NAV)资产（这些资产来自为Meta和Anthropic提供动力的公司）、市值240亿美元的公司。
英文原文
@Mitchelldzll @455BAG Bag holding a bubble burst is when you hold $20B mc 0 revenue quantum companies under Fed tightening. Not a company ( $NBIS ) growing 700%+ Y/Y doing $8 Billion ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, holding ~$6B+ in NAV assets from companies powering Meta and Antrophic, valued at $24B
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NBIS业绩超预期且基本面与股价脱节，作者今日重仓买入并看好其超越CRWV。
$NBIS 超出预期，我没看到任何分析师模型预测 $70-90 亿 ARR（年度经常性收入），这简直是令人咋舌的增长（同比增长 700%+）。 目前市场出现无差别抛售，但： - 政府停摆可能今天结束 - $NBIS 将于 11 月 24 日因纳入指数带来资金流入 - 12 月圣诞行情 - 12 月前有 70% 的概率降息 供参考：最看多的分析师预计 ARR 约为 30 亿，而 Nebius 指引是该数字的 2.5 倍。目前基本面与股价脱节，我个人今天已重仓买入。 我认为 Nebius 将在下一个增长/复苏周期中超越 $CRWV。
英文原文
$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y). Indiscriminate selloff right now but: - Gov shutdown likely ending today - $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov - Santa rally Dec -70% rate cut into Dec FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today. I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.
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Northland上调目标价，NBIS业绩超预期，作者逢低加仓。
Northland 刚刚将其目标价(PT)上调至 $211（跑赢大盘），但这 $6 的涨幅可能只是随机波动。正如你所说，我们两人都在建模约 $50-70 亿 ARR，而 $NBIS 刚刚凭借强劲的财报表现，将指引提升至 $70-90 亿。不幸的是，从 $CRWV 到 $IREN 的板块性抛售正在发生，但基本面与股价已脱节，本周跌幅达 20%。我利用这次机会在 $96 加仓。一家年增长率超过 700% 的企业显然定价错误，主要受宏观恐慌和板块回调影响。
英文原文
Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump. As you mentioned, we both were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure. Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week. I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.
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基于Nebius最新财报数据，机械重算其估值模型，得出355美元新目标价。
Northland 早在9月就基于2026财年20-40亿美元年经常性收入(ARR)的假设，给出了$NBIS 205美元的目标价。 沿用其相同的经济模型，我们现在得出的1年目标价为： 约355.00美元/股（+248.04%） 这是基于Nebius财报中70-90亿美元ARR预测得出的。 以下是更新后的指标： Northland Capital Markets 2025年9月24日的报告，其2026财年情景假设： ARR：上调至20-40亿美元 营收：23亿美元 调整后EBITDA：9.07亿美元 核心AIaaS业务的EV/销售倍数：23.8倍 流通股：约2.9亿股 每股股权价值：205美元目标价 Nebius新基本面（2025年Q3发布）： 2026财年ARR ≈ 80亿美元（中位数），营收 ≈ 46亿美元，以及按比例缩放的EBITDA（约18亿美元）。 保持其EV/销售倍数 ≈ 23.8倍，新核心企业价值 ≈ 46亿美元 × 23.8 = 1090亿美元。加上子公司（Northland分部估值法合计约70亿美元）和净现金（约7亿美元）-> 总股权 ≈ 1170亿美元 → 约355美元目标价 这是一种机械外推，假设其分析中的估值倍数不变，并非分析师可能因稀释/执行风险等而调整的目标价。 分析师从20亿美元估计到管理层最新指引中位数80亿美元的2-3倍ARR增长，机械性地推高了估值 更新后的目标价是基于重新运行的DCF模型得出的。
英文原文
Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September. From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT: ~$355.00/share (+248.04%) off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected Here's the updated metrics: Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed: ARR: raised from $2-4B Revenue: $2.3B Adjusted EBITDA: $907M EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business. Shares outstanding: ~290 M Equity value per share: $205PT New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release): CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B). Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc. 2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.
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NBIS获微软Meta验证，需求巨大或超预期
@Dylanwith86 是的，这仅仅意味着当他们签订更多合同时，他们将增加年度经常性收入(ARR)，甚至可能超出其 $70-90 亿 ARR 的预测。两个月前，仅靠 $MSFT 就达到了约 $50 亿。市场对 $NBIS 全栈基础设施的需求巨大，$MSFT 和 $META 已经证明了这一点。
英文原文
@Dylanwith86 Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection. 2 months ago it was ~$5B with just $MSFT. Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it.
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NBIS产能售罄且订单充足，市场低估其破纪录增长。
@ramiN4real 他们的产能已经售罄... 仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元。 $NBIS 将签订更多合同，所以这不是问题。 我仍然认为人们没有理解从季度营收1亿美元在一年内增长到20亿美元以上这种破纪录的增长意味着什么。
英文原文
@ramiN4real They sold out of capacity... for $7-9B ARR for next year alone. $NBIS will contract more so not a problem. I still don't think people understand how record breaking growing from $100m quarterly revenue to $2B+ in 1 year is.
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NBIS凭借能耗比优势大幅领先IREN。
@cmachdop $NBIS 凭借这一能耗比(Energy Ratio)将 $IREN 远远甩在身后。
英文原文
@cmachdop $NBIS blows $IREN out of the water with this ER
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Nebius收入指引上调，有望通过新交易明年达120亿ARR。
@StableBread 我原本希望确认50亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，现在指引已上调至70-90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 这甚至还没考虑到$NBIS可能进一步扩大规模，超出该前瞻性收入指引，并通过与新超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)达成交易+获取更多算力容量，明年实现120亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)。 Nebius太疯狂了。
英文原文
@StableBread I was hoping for $5B ARR confirmation, now it’s $7-9B ARR guided. And that’s not even considering that $NBIS could still scale up more and beat that forward revenue guidance and do $12B ARR next year with a new hyperscaler deal + acquiring more capacity. Nebius is crazy.
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NBIS市值将超千亿美元，当前瓶颈相比预期增长微不足道。
@ravi_nareddy 是的，看看被引用的帖子。即使考虑到这一点，与预期的增长相比，它依然微乎其微。 $NBIS 是一家正在崛起、市值将超 1000 亿美元的公司，这只是时间问题。
英文原文
@ravi_nareddy Yeah look at the quoted post. Even factoring that in, it's tiny compared to projected growth. $NBIS is a $100B+ company in the making, it's just a matter of time.
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计划继续加仓NBIS看涨LEAPS，认为当前价位严重低估。
@rioferdy838 如果开盘时股价维持在 $116 左右，我会继续加仓 $NBIS 的看涨长期期权（LEAPS）。鉴于财报中给出的新指引，当前价位被严重低估。
英文原文
@rioferdy838 I'm adding more $NBIS call leaps if price stays around $116 when the market opens. Ridiculously undervalued at these levels given new guidance from earnings report.
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NBIS股价有望12月破150，取决于ATM增发时机。
@Neomeldir 即使到了12月，$NBIS 也很容易突破150美元。这主要取决于公司是否决定通过自动取款机(ATM)机制在市场上出售股份，以及具体的出售时机。
英文原文
@Neomeldir Even by December $NBIS can easily break $150. It just depends on when the company wants to sell shares on the market through their ATM (if they decide to do so)
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NBIS财报超预期，获META大单，强烈买入。
目前对 $NBIS 财报的总结： 绝对的。爆表。财报。 在两个月前刚与 $MSFT 达成 170 亿美元交易的基础上，又新增了 30 亿美元的 $META 大单，以及 Cursor 的新企业客户。 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR) 预测规模巨大，远超任何预期。 强烈买入，目标价 116 美元（包含定向增发 (ATM) 的影响）。https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
英文原文
Takeaway from $NBIS earnings so far: Absolute. Blowout. Earnings. $3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago. $7-9B ARR projection is enormous and blew away any expectation. Insanely Strong Buy $116 (including the ATM). https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ
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NBIS达成ARR预测，表现超预期，持仓价值显著重估
@Asmallfish5 是的，我在他们通往1000亿美元市值的路径分析中提到，他们只需要实现90-110亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)，而他们已经达成了这一预测。 这是一次令人难以置信的持仓表现，即使考虑到10%的潜在定向增发(ATM)稀释，$NBIS 的股价也应远高于基于70-90亿美元预测的水平（我原本期望是50亿美元以上，但这完全超出了我的预期）
英文原文
@Asmallfish5 Yeah I was saying in my path to $100B they just needed to do $9-11B ARR, and they hit that projection. Incredible hold, and even through 10% potential ATM, $NBIS should be way up from this $7-9B projection (I was hoping for $5B+, but this blew away my expectation)
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看好NBIS，认为其收入增长抵消稀释，当前估值偏低。
我的意思是，仅明年的年化经常性收入(ARR)就达到70-90亿美元，这绝对是巨大的成就。 $NBIS 的股价应该交易在160美元以上，市场目前将其核心业务（季度ARR 22亿美元）估值为150亿美元（哈哈）。巨大的收入预测完全掩盖了任何自动取款机(ATM)融资稀释的影响。 除此之外，大概只需信任 Nebius 管理层即可。通过收购来修复是个不错的方案，但他们可能更清楚该怎么做。
英文原文
I mean just as things are $7-$9B ARR next year alone is absolutely tremendous. $NBIS should be trading at $160+, markets valuing their core business ($2.2B ARR a quarter at $15B right now lol). The tremendous revenue projection outshadows any ATM dilution. That aside, probably just trust Nebius management on this one. Nice fix would be acquisitions, but they would probably know better.
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NBIS短期抛压大，但META合同战略意义重。
@0xcyberbro 中长期来看很容易。但在极短期内，存在27亿美元抛压（即使 $NBIS 在当前水平被低估）确实令人沮丧。 30亿美元的 $META 合同和年度经常性收入(ARR)预测在战略上更为重大，但股权融资在短期内财务负担更重。
英文原文
@0xcyberbro Easily for mid-long term. Very near term, it sucks that there's 2.7B worth of selling pressure (even if $NBIS is undervalued at these levels). The $3B $META contract and ARR projection is strategically bigger, but the equity raise is financially heavier in the short term.
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NBIS短期受稀释压制，但基本面强劲，当前股价被低估。
价值27亿美元的自动交易机制(ATM)股份稀释将对$NBIS股价造成短期压力。 从根本上看，他们每年90亿美元年度经常性收入(ARR)的规模及其利润率，理应使其市值达到1000亿美元。 我认为，即使考虑到稀释因素，股价也应远高于当前水平（可转换票据(Convertible Notes)发行价在138美元以上），而这还是在其疯狂的ARR增长和与$META的交易之前。
英文原文
The $2.7B worth of ATM shares for dilution will put short term pressure on $NBIS stock price. Fundamentally doing $9B ARR a year with their margins should bring them to a $100B marketcap anyway. I'd argue stock price should be way up above these levels even factoring in dilution. (convertible notes were at $138+), and this was before their ridiculous ARR growth and $META deal.
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NBIS财报超预期且签Meta大单，因ATM稀释股价微跌，但长期前景极看好。
$NBIS 财报大幅超出预期，年化经常性收入(ARR)达70-90亿美元，并与Meta达成30亿美元的超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)交易。他们还增加了企业客户Cursor。尽管如此，在财报电话会议前股价目前下跌1.77%。为什么？稀释~27亿美元，2500万股通过市场发行(ATM)稀释，将于11月12日提交。这意味着价值27亿美元的股票（按当前价格）可以在公开市场按当前价格出售，而非可转换票据（首选结构），这很可能是股价尚未上涨20%的主要原因。这会影响短期股价，但此次发行后公司基本面依然惊人，拥有卓越的未来收入增长。例如看看Rocketlab或其他通过此举补充增长的公司。如果有更多时间，我也会深入分析财务数据。但仅2026年的70-90亿美元ARR（许多分析师预期在2028年之后），是非常看多的。
英文原文
$NBIS earnings report blew away expectations with $7-9B ARR and a $3B hyperscaler deal with Meta. They also added to their enterprise client list with Cursor. Despite that, stock is down -1.77% currently before their earnings call. Why? Dilution~$2.7B 25M share dilution ATM offering that will be filed Nov 12th. Meaning 2.7B worth of shares (at current prices) can be sold in the open market at current prices vs. convertible notes (preferred structure), which is the most likely reason it's not up 20% by now. It affect share price short term, but the company fundamentals after this offering is incredible with amazing forward revenue growth. Eg. look at Rocketlab or others that did this to supplement growth. Will also delve into financial data given more time. But the $7-9 billion ARR for 2026 alone (which many analysts expected in 2028+), is insanely bullish.
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$NBIS超预期并签$META大单，看好其成长为千亿美元市值公司。
哇，$NBIS 刚刚在增长方面大幅超出了年度经常性收入(ARR)预期，并在财报电话会议(ER)中宣布与 $META 签署了一份令人惊喜的30亿美元超大规模云厂商(hyperscaler)协议。 他们现在预计2026年ARR将达到70-90亿美元，这意味着季度营收约为21亿美元以上。 这正是 Nebius 成长为一家市值1000亿美元公司的路径，$NBIS 正在成为一家世代级的公司。 关于整体业绩： 每股收益(EPS)：-0.52 vs -0.4（超预期23%） 营收：1.5573亿 vs 1.411亿（不及预期6%） 市场是前瞻性的，任何短期的财报电话会议波动都会被其巨大的未来增长前景所掩盖。 我将在有更多时间处理信息时进行更深入的分析，但就目前而言，这份惊喜的超大规模云厂商协议意义重大。 当市场对此进行定价时，股价应该远高于当前水平。
英文原文
Wow, $NBIS just blew away ARR expectations on growth and just signed a surprisising $3B hyperscaler deal with $META from their ER. They now expect $7-9B ARR 2026, which is ~2.1B+ revenue/quarter. This is exactly how Nebius grows grow to a $100B MC and $NBIS is a generational company in the making. In terms of general earnings: EPS: -.52 vs -.4 (Beat by 23%) Revenue 155.73m vs. 141.1M (Miss by 6%) Markets are forward looking and any short term ER will be overshadowed by its immense forward growth projection. Will do a deeper rundown when there's more time to process information but so far, this is incredibly huge with a surprise hyperscaler deal. Stock should be up way above these levels when markets price this in.
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Nebius核心业务被低估，现有业务按计划推进即利好。
很多人仍不理解 $NBIS 的未来营收，Nebius 量化并确认像 $WULF 这样的财务数据，而 FinX 正基于其现有核心业务进行投机，这本身就足以成为下一次财报的催化剂。鉴于 $NBIS 已从高点下跌约 20%，且市场低估了其基于现有净资产/资产的核心业务价值。如果宣布像 $CIFR 那样的大合同我会感到惊讶，所以这不在此预期内。我更关注执行层面，如利润率等，在看到他们关于 MSFT 的白皮书和建设/时间表后。如果仅凭现有业务就能按计划推进，那将是极其积极的信号。
英文原文
So a lot of people still don't understand $NBIS forward revenue, so having Nebius quantify and confirm financial data like $WULF that FinX are speculating with their existing core business would already be enough of momentum for next earnings. Since Nebius has already dropped ~20% from highs and markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets. I'd be surprised if they announced another large contract like $CIFR so it's not expected. I'm more interested in execution, such as margins, etc. after seeing their whitepaper and buildout/timeline for MSFT. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive. https://t.co/2x4vlVv6RU
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回应质疑，指出CLSK管理层将争议操作称为无限资金漏洞。
@DeepValueBagger 你可能会说是骗局。但 $CLSK 管理层称之为无限资金漏洞（infinite money glitch）。
英文原文
@DeepValueBagger You might say scam. But $CLSK management says infinite money glitch.
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反驳Burry观点，论证旧GPU/TPU因残值仍具价值。
所以@michaeljburry 完全错了，因为 $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/芯片的“保质期(shelf life)”并非他所声称的那样。但这很微妙，因为“利用率(utilization)可能被夸大以证明资本支出(capex)合理性”这一观点确实有一定道理。 你在这里同意我的观点，即它们仍然有用，但你只是在解释为什么出于必要性仍在继续使用它们。 我说的是GPU和TPU保留了残值(residual value)，并举了5-7年前的例子。 如果7年前的TPU因算力约束仍在运行，它们就仍有用途并保留价值。如果5年前的GPU仍在运行且能以高价转售，它们就保留了残值，因为它们被用于低优先级的推理(inference)并实现了货币化。
英文原文
So @michaeljburry is completely wrong in the sense that the shelf life of a $NVDA GPU/ $GOOGL TPU/ chips is not what he’s claiming. But it’s nuanced because there’s some truth the idea of utilization might be stretched to justify capex. You’re agreeing with me here in that they’re still useful but you’re just explaining why they’re still used out of necessity. I was saying GPUs and TPUs retained residual value and gave ones from 5-7 years ago as an example. If 7 year old TPUs are still running because of compute constraints, they’re still useful and retain value. If 5 year old GPUs are still running and can be resold at high values, they’re retain residual value because they get monetized for lower prio inference.
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宏观利好预期下，建议布局基本面稳健的高Beta成长股。
网上有很多只发标题党的帖子。 我通常尝试在标题之上连接线索，并补充“为什么”（因为它能推动市场）。 关于新宏观环境的TLDR（对$NBIS、$IREN等高Beta股看涨）： 1⃣ 结束政府停摆的协议正在成型 - Axios（政府停摆可能在~5天内结束） 评论：过去一两个小时内，事件合约赔率从27%跳升至54%。我们正在定价近期解决。 • 政府支出恢复后，流动性回流。 • 市场重新定价更高的GDP增长。 • 消费者支出立即回升。 • 不确定性消退（市场讨厌不确定性）。 结果 → 预期当风险偏好回归时，高Beta和周期性股票表现良好。 2️⃣ 向美国纳税人提议$2,000“关税红利” 评论：感觉像是COVID刺激的迷你版。那些存款引发了零售支出的最快跳跃，人们用那笔钱购买从比特币到英雄联盟皮肤的一切。但这至少来自关税。 • 对资产有利：更多资金流入经济。 • 可能导致通胀：需求压力增加，美联储后期可能反击。 • 短期：对风险资产和成长股极度积极。中长期：可能因通胀和美联储收紧而适得其反。 • 此类举措通常旨在短期内点燃市场，利好任何高成长标的。 结果 → 预期在正式重开前抢跑，并在确认后飙升。 你可以看到像$ETH这样的资产因上述两者的结合开始从$3300->$3500恢复，作为一个例子。 再次强调，我预期了像#2这样的情况，仅仅是因为明年中期选举临近。执政党如果市场表现良好通常会连任（所以我预期像#2 + 施压美联储降息，所以市场上涨）。 当然，这只是新消息+猜测，鉴于决策的波动性，不一定是事实lol。但总体上关注那些回调但基本面仍在增长的股票，例如$NBIS、$RDDT、$ALAB等。
英文原文
Lot of headline-only posters out there. I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets). TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc): 1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days) Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution. • Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes. • Market reprices GDP growth higher. • Consumer spending picks up immediately. • Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty). Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back. 2️⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs. • Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy. • Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later. • Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens. • Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth. Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed. You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example. Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up). Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.
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看好NBIS强劲ARR指引及高利润率潜力，静待后续验证。
$NBIS 的年化经常性收入(ARR) 前瞻指引可能非常强劲。英国新数据中心和以色列政府数据中心将通过产能建设+新合同增加即时 ARR。白皮书暗示编排(Orchestration)业务将带来更高利润率。管理层展现出信心，这正是股东所喜欢的。几天后我们就会看到结果。
英文原文
Probably a strong forward projections ARR for $NBIS. New UK datacenters, Israel government datacenters that add more immediate ARR with capacity buildout + new contracts. Whitepaper alludes to higher margins from orchestration. Management exudes confidence which is what shareholders like. We’ll see in a few days.
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NBIS基本面改善显著但股价未动，看好指数纳入及新订单带来的利好。
希望你不会遭遇追缴保证金（如果你使用了杠杆）。否则，杠杆带来的反弹应该会带来更高的上行空间。 $NBIS 自与 $MSFT 达成交易以来，基本面出现了极其积极的变化，但其股价仍维持在最初公告时的跳涨水平附近交易。 抛开宏观因素不谈： - 预计11月24日左右纳入 MSCI 世界指数基金。 - 政府人工智能高性能计算（AI HPC）订单（以色列）。 - 英国数据中心项目。 还有其他次要的服务发布，比如 Token Factory，但我认为上述三点是最大的变化（后两者带来收入增长，前者带来流动性流入）。
英文原文
Hope you don't get margin called (if you're on margin). Otherwise, recovery on leverage should net higher upside. $NBIS only had extremely positive changes to the fundamentals since the $MSFT deal but is trading around the same price on the initial announcement pop. Macro aside: - Inclusion into MSCI world index fund ~Nov 24th. - Government AI HPC deals (Israel) - UK Data center. There's other minor service launches too like Token Factory but I'd probably put those three above as the biggest changes (latter two for revenue increase, first one for liquidity inflow)
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基于降息预期和政府重开概率，推测高贝塔股将大幅复苏。
当然，我的推测是，一旦政府重新开放，我们将看到像 $NBIS、$IREN 或 $ASTS 这样的高贝塔(高波动性)股票大幅复苏。鉴于下个月降息这一更广泛的顺风因素已被定价，概率为 74%。 根据当前的合约数据： 11月12日-15日：22% 11月15日：51%（未来一周内某时点约有半数机会） 11月30日：92% 我们可以看到，未来7天内政府重新开放的概率为50%。 因此，我们预计届时会出现复苏（如果概率增加，可能会有一些抢跑交易）。这仅仅是关于如何估算复苏。
英文原文
Sure, my speculation was that we'll see a large recovery in high beta stocks like $NBIS, $IREN, or $ASTS once government will re-opens. Since there's a broader tailwind of a rate cut next month priced in at 74%. So with the current contract data: Nov 12th-15th: 22% Nov 15th: 51% (~half chance sometime in the next week) Nov 30th: 92% We can just see there's a 50% chance government reopens in the next 7 days. So we'll get a recovery around then (likely with some frontrunning if chances increase). That's just in terms with estimating recovery.
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IREN财报EPS超预期系会计技巧，AI云ARR指引强劲，但利润转化仍待观察。
关于 $IREN，我看到那些吹嘘每股收益(EPS)“超预期”的评论，正是之前一直试图引用AI高性能计算(HPC)92%+毛利率的同一群人。这纯粹只是会计框架的包装。 从盈利角度看，他们预测AI云业务的年度经常性收入(ARR)达到34亿美元，这极其看涨。IREN 还有大量剩余产能，因此预计进入2026年后ARR将进一步扩大。 但除此之外，我一直主张产能转化为收入，但从该收入中产生的利润率/自由现金流(FCF)更为重要。现在的问题仅仅是有多少收入能转化为利润，我认为在后续财报出来之前，我们很难确切知道。 抛开这些不谈，IREN 的财报表现似乎很不错。
英文原文
So for $IREN, the amount of comments I've seen bullposting about EPS "beat" are the same people who kept trying to quote 92%+ gross margins on AI HPC. It's literally just accounting framing. Earnings wise, extremely bullish that they projected $3.4B ARR from AI cloud. IREN has a lot more capacity left-over so they'll likely scale ARR more going into 2026. But that aside I've always argued capacity -> revenue, but margins/FCF from that revenue is more important. Now it's just a debate how much of that revenue converts into profit, which I don't think we'll know for sure until future earnings come in. That aside IREN earnings seemed great.