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产业链结构、上下游与瓶颈环节研究 · 共 1122 条 · 第 23 / 23 页
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美国政府入股量子等国安企业，引发空头回补与机构重配。
突发：美国政府拟收购量子计算公司股权，这是巨大的游戏规则改变者。 国家安全概念股——AI ($NBIS)、能源 ($TE)、太空 ($RKLB)、矿产 ($MP)、量子 ($RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS)——可能迎来剧烈反转，空头将疯狂平仓，做市商(Market Makers)的对冲操作也将机械性推高股价。 我们观察到一个清晰的趋势：华盛顿正在向国家安全公司投入数十亿美元，范围从关键矿产扩展到量子计算，并可能涉及其他领域。 特朗普政府购买对国家安全至关重要的各公司股权，可能引发机构显著重新配置仓位，因为基金和算法正在重新评估做空与美国政府在稀土、量子、AI等领域建设挂钩资产的风险。 机构和做市商(MMs)可能会针对散户做空，但他们绝不会对美国政府的资产负债表下注。
英文原文
Breaking: U.S. Government moves to take stakes in quantum computing firms, a huge game-changer. National security names - AI ( $NBIS ), Energy ( $TE ), Space ( $RKLB ), Minerals ( $MP ), Quantum ( $RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover and MM hedging mechanically goes upward. We now see a clear trend: Washington is deploying billions into national security companies, expanding from critical minerals to quantum computing, and likely to others. The Trump administration buying equity of various firms critical to national security could trigger significant institutional repositioning, as funds and algorithms rethink the risks of shorting assets tied to the U.S. government's buildout of rare earths, quantum, AI, etc. Institutions and MMs may short against retail, but they never bet against the U.S. Government's balance sheet.
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Neoclouds凭借软件编排优势解决GPU瓶颈，构建高毛利护城河。
好问题！超大规模云厂商已签署确切的利用率+支出协议，例如 $NBIS 与 $MSFT 的交易，微软将在5年内支出170-200亿美元。这并非完全是在承担高资本支出(capex)的风险，因为他们是在为产能付费以解决瓶颈。他们仍在支出数百亿美元，部分原因是无法自建，部分原因是前期高资本支出存在更大风险。我在核心论点中写道，Neoclouds（新云）+ 有意将GPU分配给这些Neoclouds是 $NVDA 维持主导地位、实现多元化并避免未来利润率压缩的方式。我们也看到超大规模云厂商在自建方面遇到困难（如 $ORCL 亏损1亿美元），但这恰恰表明Neoclouds在软件编排处理GPU利用率以及通过其建设方式维持高毛利率方面拥有巨大护城河。$NBIS、$WLAC 等毛利率已达70%左右，现在只是执行问题。这不仅是芯片稀缺，这些小型公司+转型HPC的比特币矿工（如 $IREN）实际上拥有竞争优势，即护城河。
英文原文
Great question! Hyperscalers signed confirmed utilization + spend, for example with $NBIS deal with $MSFT, Microsoft is spending 17-20B over 5 years. It's not exactly risking high-capex, since they're spending to pay for capacity since there's a bottleneck. They're still spending tens of billions of dollars, partly because they can't do it themselves and partly because there's a larger risk in high capex upfront. I wrote in my central thesis that Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road. We've also seen hyperscalers have trouble with buildout on their own, (eg. $ORCL losing $100m), but this just goes to show that there is a huge moat with Neoclouds in terms of software orchestration handling GPU utilization and maintaining high gross margins with how they do their buildout. $NBIS, $WLAC, and others already had 70% or so gross margins and it's just execution now. It's not just scarcity in chips, there's actually a competitive advantage that these little guys + Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat.
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超大规模云合同增加，META签约利好新兴云厂商，MSFT合同未定价。
更多超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)的合同正在陆续到来。但你关于财报+降息（以及11/12月季节性因素）作为最大短期催化剂的观点完全正确。通常公司在财报后发布更多前瞻性指引时会获得估值重估(rerated)。当$META与$CRWV签约时，这对其他新兴云厂商(neoclouds)是极度看涨的信号。除此之外，我认为$MSFT的合同和其他降息预期尚未被市场定价。
英文原文
More hyperscaler contracts coming in. But you're spot on with earnings + rate cuts (+ Nov/Dec seasonality) as the biggest near-term catalysts. Usually companies get rerated after earnings when they release more insight into forward projections. When $META signed with $CRWV that's extremely bullish for the other neoclouds. Aside from that don't think $MSFT contract and other rate cuts are priced in yet.
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呼吁监管机构调查媒体虚假报道操纵市场及潜在内幕交易行为。
@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - 调查此类对产生重大市场影响的媒体报道是否违反了10b-5规则。请探查其与外部证券交易的模式/协调情况。最近一次发生在10月7日，“甲骨文内部数据显示出租英伟达芯片的财务挑战”——缺乏背景的投机性报道造成了数百亿美元的市场财务损失。$ORCL 估值下跌80-90亿美元（$291 -> $284），$CRWV 下跌20亿美元，以及该板块其他许多抛售。在此事件中，文章故意遗漏了极其重要的数百亿美元云合同，以将讨论框架设定为针对 @sama 和 @satyanadella 的抹黑文章。操纵市场的糟糕新闻令人发指，但由于这种影响市场的行为持续存在，请调查 The Information 的无根据报道和关键信息遗漏是否与外部证券交易有关。
英文原文
@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - Investigate whether this media reporting, which materially affects the markets, violates Rule 10b-5. Probe patterns/coordination with external security transactions. Most recent occurrence was October 7th, "Internal Oracle Data Show Financial Challenge of Renting Out Nvidia Chips” - speculative reporting lacking context caused tens of billions of dollars in market financial damages. An $8 – 9 billion drop in $ORCL valuation ($291 -> $284), $2B decline in $CRWV, and many other sell-offs in the sector from the article. In this event, the article intentionally leaves out extremely important tens of billions of dollars of cloud contracts to frame discussions as a hit-piece on @sama and @satyanadella. Bad journalism that moves markets is egregious but as this market-moving behavior is ongoing, please probe whether unsubstantiated reporting and critical information omission done by The Information is connected to external securities transactions.
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驳斥媒体抹黑，指出微软已签长期保底协议，服务器过剩论不成立。
这篇文章写得极差，且完全缺乏背景信息。上次他们发布针对 Oracle 的抹黑文章时，这种故意剥离背景的做法就引发了更广泛的抛售 @SEC @secpaulsatkins 文章的核心观点——“不断升级的计算需求可能导致服务器建设过剩，且无法获得足够的财务回报”——完全忽略了 $MSFT 已与多家新云厂商（例如与 Nebius 的 170-190 亿美元协议，或与 $CRWV 的协议）签署了多年期的合同预留，以确认其使用率。 这些都是微软为扩大产能而签署的数十亿美元最低使用量协议，且不含“随意终止”条款。 通过剥离这些背景，这篇文章就变成了空头抹黑帖加上“Sam Altman 是个坏人”的叙事，而非真正的新闻。
英文原文
Extremely poorly written and zero-contextualization article. Intentional no-contextualization led to broader selloffs last time they published an Oracle hit-piece @SEC @secpaulsatkins The core point - “Escalating compute demands could result in overbuilt servers without sufficient financial returns” - completely omits that $MSFT signed multi-year contractual reservations for confirmed utilization with many neoclouds (eg. $17-19B with Nebius or with $CRWV) These are tens-of-billions in minimum-utilization agreements Microsoft signed to scale capacity without “at-will” termination clauses. By stripping out that context, this becomes a short seller hit piece + Sam Altman terrible person narrative rather than actual news.
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驳斥关于微软与Nebius租赁协议可随意终止的谣言，引用SEC文件澄清条款。
这是一条极其危险的帖子，因为你在散布虚假信息。我希望你能在帖子造成麻烦之前进行更正：“他们获得了极佳的租赁交易，并且拥有随时终止的选项，毫无风险”。以下是来自实际 SEC 文件中的终止条款：- 如果 Nebius 在宽限期后未能满足该批次 GPU 服务(GPU Service)的约定交付日期，且无法提供替代容量，微软(Microsoft)可以终止协议下的特定 GPU 服务批次。- 如果另一方实质性违反协议且在 60 天内未予补救，任何一方均可因故终止协议。- 如果另一方出现以下情况，任何一方也可终止协议：- 停止经营、解散或清算；或 - 被提起破产或无力偿债程序（除非在 30 天内驳回）——除非是第 11 章重组且协议正转让给有偿付能力的实体。不存在“随意”(at-will)终止权。
英文原文
Extremely dangerous post because you’re spreading disinformation. I hope you can make a correction before the post causes trouble: “They get great lease deals with the option to terminate literally at any time, without the risk” These are the termination clauses from actual SEC filings: - Microsoft may terminate a specific GPU Service tranche under the agreement if, after a grace period, Nebius fails to meet the agreed delivery dates for that tranche and cannot provide alternative capacity. - Either party may terminate the agreement for cause if the other party materially breaches the agreement and does not remedy it within 60 days. - Either party may also terminate if the other party: - Ceases to do business, dissolves or liquidates; or - Has a bankruptcy or insolvency proceeding instituted against it (which is not dismissed within 30 days) — except where it’s a Chapter 11 reorganization and the agreement is being transferred to a solvent entity. There is no “at-will” termination right.
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TSM超预期证明AI基建强劲，反驳仅凭ASML看衰半导体的观点。
是的，随着 $TSM 全面大幅超出盈利预期，我们已经对未来增长有了一些洞察。 我总看到 X 上的人只引用 $ASML 就声称半导体扩张正在放缓，但这完全错了。ASML 衡量的是晶圆厂(Fab)扩张周期。 人们只需看看 TSM，因为它是衡量 AI 数据中心/AI 建设最纯粹的方式，毕竟他们几乎制造所有东西 lol。 而且他们确实预测了高增长+扩大的利润率。 量子/矿产等更具投机性。有些可能会表现良好，但像 Neoclouds 这样的高远期营收/利润是最可持续的，并将在未来的财报中引发市值的大幅重估。
英文原文
Yeah we already got some insights into future growth with $TSM blowing out high expectations on earnings across the board. I keep seeing people on X saying semi expansion is slowing by only citing $ASML but they're completely wrong. ASML is a measurement of Fab expansion cycles. People just need to look at TSM, which is the purest way to measure AI datacenter/AI buildout because they literally make everything lol. And they literally projected high growth + expanded margins. Quantum/Minerals, etc are more speculative. Some might turn out well, but high forward rev/profit on stuff like Neoclouds are the most sustainable and will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps in future earnings reports.
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区域银行恐慌是买入AI基建及新云厂商的良机，优选有真实营收支撑的标的。
宏观与回调思考 10月16日： 市场动态繁多，例如 $GLD 创历史新高，但这涉及美元的另一条复杂线索。今日股市主要下跌源于区域银行的冲击，因此我将聚焦于此。 以下是极佳的买入机会： 拥有确认的 Mag7 合同的新云厂商(Neoclouds) - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) 等。 AI 基础设施建设(AI Buildout) - 半导体如 $TSM（强烈买入，这类在爆发式财报后似乎总是回调以清洗看涨期权）。我们已有爆发式财报数据及增长的利润率+远期营收，$TSM 是我见过最简单的做多标的。TSM 的印钞能力也支持这一建设论点。 - 能源如 $FLNC 可能因数据中心建设+AI 使用带来的重估而继续上涨。 加密货币 - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 都是极好的买入点，但我对 $CRCL 等会稍加谨慎。人们可能对 2023 年 Silvergate 倒闭及 USDC 脱钩仍有创伤后应激障碍(PTSD)。 某些股票急需修正： - 量子计算 - 机器人/无人机 - 关键矿产（仅特定标的可能优质） 这些公司零营收却因炒作呈抛物线增长。 区别在于，新云厂商+AI 基础设施建设是基于执行确认的营收。它们虽都是国家安全风险，但 AI 建设有全球最富有的超大规模云厂商背书。 “$AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL 等今年资本支出预计达 3200 亿。”- BI “$META, OpenAI 和 $ORCL 宣布未来几年将在数据中心投入超 1 万亿美元。”- BI 具体发生的情况： 市场今日因区域银行担忧下跌，但可能被夸大。最新恐慌源于 Zion/Western Alliance 的借款人欺诈。我猜测是个别银行问题，而非会导致信贷紧缩的系统性银行崩溃。 两周后降息概率接近 98%。这是全面必要的修正（以清除泡沫）+杠杆交易+期权流向。利用此次修正做多。 这仍是整个 AI 建设的最早期阶段，我预计 $NBIS 为例，1 年内 ARR 将增至 45 亿-70 亿+，市值从当前增至 600 亿+。 再次强调，新云厂商的炒作源于远期营收增长（基本面），而量子/部分无人机公司的炒作基于承诺。现在是扩大拥有疯狂远期营收增长（将导致市值大幅重估）公司多头的完美时机，而非仅如量子计算般的行业叙事/投机。
英文原文
Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th: There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD. Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that. It's a great buying opportunity on: Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) etc. AI Buildout - Semis such as $TSM (Screaming buy it always seem to dips like this after blowout earnings to wipe off calls). We already have blowout earnings numbers and increasing margins + forward revenue, $TSM is just the easiest long I've ever seen. TSM printing money also supports this builtout thesis. - Energy such as $FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use. Crypto - $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 all amazing buys, I'd be a tad more cautious of $CRCL and others though. People probably have PTSD from 2023 silvergate, etc. going down and USDC depegging. It's a much needed correction for certain stocks: - Quantum - Robotics/Drones - Critical Minerals (only specific ones are likely good) That have 0 revenue and are increasing parabolically off hype. _ The difference is that Neoclouds + AI Buildout is confirmed revenue based on execution. They're all national security risks but AI Buildout has the wealthiest hyperscalers in the world are backstopping it. " $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL, and others could spend an estimated 320B on capex this year". - BI " $META, OpenAI, and $ORCL, have announced plans to spend more than $1 Trillion on Data Centers in the next several years"- BI _ In terms of what happened in specific: Markets dipped today on regional banking fears, but it's likely overblown. The latest scare was due to Zion/Western Alliance mainly due to borrower fraud. My guess is that it's individual banks, not systemic banking collapses that would have credit tightening. We have a near-confirmed rate cut (close to 98%) in 2 weeks time. This is a correction needed across the board (to wipe away the froth) + leverage traders + option flow. use this correction to go long. This is still one the earliest parts of the whole AI buildout, I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here. Again the hype built into Neoclouds are because of forward revenue growth (fundamentals), while the hype into Quantum/some drone companies, etc. are based around promises. It's a perfect time to scale up longs from companies with INSANE FORWARD REVENUE GROWTH (which will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps) not just industry narrative/speculation like Quantum.
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指出某东南亚14亿美元交易比美国Mag7更可疑，故未纳入分析
@realbaggyboy 艾克佐迪亚(Exodia)还有其他不太适合工作场所(SFW)的身体部位。 （玩笑归玩笑，他们在东南亚的“14亿美元交易”比美国Mag7的交易更可疑，所以没有将其纳入）
英文原文
@realbaggyboy There are other possible body parts of Exodia too that are less SFW. (Jokes aside their “$1.4B deal” in SEA is a bit more sketchy than Mag7 ones in US so didn’t include it)
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Coreweave是新云核心但债务风险高于同行。
@Solar_Twelve 我实际上已经触及了 X 平台股票代码数量的上限，否则我会讨论更多从 $AMD 到 $CRWV 的内容。不过，Coreweave 确实是新云(Neocloud)交易的核心，但相比 NBIS 或 CIFR，其债务状况相当糟糕。
英文原文
@Solar_Twelve I actually hit the X ticker maximum otherwise I would have talked about more stuff from $AMD to $CRWV. But yeah, Coreweave is at the center of the Neocloud trade but they have pretty toxic debt compared to NBIS or CIFR.
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指出英伟达通过特定结构间接持有AMD股份。
@pepemoonboy 我觉得 $NVDA 通过这种结构间接持有 $AMD 的股份这件事挺有意思的。
英文原文
@pepemoonboy I just find it funny how $NVDA would have an indirect stake in $AMD through this structure.
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分析NBIS因客户多元及软件优势，利用率表现优于IREN和ORCL。
这是多种因素混合的结果，文章没有提供细分数据。一个主要原因是建设/利用率与收入增长之间存在滞后。$NBIS 在这方面的表现优于 $IREN 和 $ORCL，因为他们拥有高度多元化的客户群 + 更好的软件编排能力以实现更高的整体利用率。我不同意这主要是由托管(colocation)造成的，因为导致甲骨文利润率下滑的是同时发生的4-5个不同因素。
英文原文
It's a mix of things, the article doesn't provide breakdown. A large reason was because of lag between buildout/utilization and revenue ramp. $NBIS does better than $IREN $ORCL in the regards that they have a heavily diversified customer base + better software orchestration to achieve higher utilization throughout. I disagree that it was mainly due to colocation since it's 4-5 different things at once causing margin loss for oracle.
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对比NBIS与ORCL，指出客户多元化有助于降低集中度风险并提升利用率。
没错，这确实揭示了集中度风险，也说明了为何拥有高度多元化客户基础的“新云”厂商（如 $NBIS）可能会比那些没有多元化的厂商拥有更好的经济效益。 $ORCL 的部分亏损源于建设周期与利用率之间的时间差，因为其几乎所有订单都来自 OpenAI 等 4-5 家客户。需求是存在的，但存在收入滞后。 以 $NBIS 为例，其客户高度多元化，很可能在建设过程中就实现高利用率。
英文原文
Yep that's true and just alerts to concentration risk and why Neoclouds (eg. $NBIS) that have heavily diversified customer base would likely have better economics than those that don't. Part of $ORCL's loss was time between buildout/utilization since virtually all of its deals came from 4-5 customers like OpenAI. Demand exists, but there was revenue lag. $NBIS for example is heavily diversified and would likely achieve the high utilization throughout buildout.
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Oracle面临利用率低等问题，整体利好新型云厂商。
@Pacheca12345 @litigious_dulce Oracle 面临低利用率、折扣价格等问题，OP 过于专注于托管服务(colocation)。 这是多种因素的综合结果，但总体上对新型云厂商(neoclouds)是利好。
英文原文
@Pacheca12345 @litigious_dulce Oracle faced low utilization, discounted prices, and others, OP focuses too much on colocaiton. It's a mix of factors but it's generally bullish for neoclouds
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甲骨文GPU服务亏损凸显新型云在资本效率与利润率上的优势，利好NBIS等。
为什么$ORCL在GPU即服务（GPU-as-a-Service）方面面临的挑战（据泄露消息）实际上对Nebius等新型云（Neoclouds）是利好。 超大规模云服务商在GPU经济学上的挣扎，加强了专业化新型云的论点。 这对$NBIS、$WYFI、$IREN、$CIFR、$CRWV等股票来说是一个惊人的机会： 简而言之（据传闻）： 甲骨文面临亏损源于： - 客户增长前的低利用率（闲置产能） - 巨额前期资本支出（Blackwell GPU） - 沉重的 overhead（运营开销） - 折扣定价 结果：甲骨文的GPU计算业务出现负毛利率。 这对甲骨文是利空，对新型云是利好：这仅仅表明 1. 复杂性的证明 = 护城河的验证。 像$NBIS这样的新型云做得更好，这是一个真正的竞争优势和利润率机会（这就是为什么$MSFT选择与Nebius签约而不是自建）。 2. 资本效率优势。 新型云使用租赁/托管以获得灵活性（例如NBIS在Patmos和Verne），并通过工作负载分配保持高利用率（而甲骨文在利用率上挣扎）。 3. 外包需求增加 如果甲骨文和超大规模云服务商在建设上遇到困难，他们可能会将工作负载转移到新型云并签署更多合同（例如MSFT与CRWV）。 4. 甲骨文在此使用了折扣价格。新型云可以在优化利润率的基础上进行理性定价。 5. 定制基础设施提高利润率 像Nebius这样的新型云拥有用于GPU调度的定制编排堆栈，大量内部软件和自动化以最大化利用率和产出，从而维持50-70%的毛利率，相比之下ORCL则不然。 这对甲骨文和超大规模云服务商的建设是利空，但实际上对$CRWV、$NBIS等专业新型云提供商是利好。
英文原文
Why $ORCL facing challenges with GPU-as-a-Service (from leaks) is actually bullish for neoclouds like Nebius. Hyperscalers struggling with GPU economics strengthens the case for specalized neoclouds. This is an insane opportunity on $NBIS, $WYFI, $IREN, $CIFR, $CRWV and others: TLDR: (from rumors) Oracle faced a loss from: - Low utilization (idle capacity) before customer ramp - Massive upfront CapEx (Blackwell GPUs) - Heavy overhead - Discount pricing Result: Negative gross margins on GPU compute for Oracle. This is negative for Oracle, positive for Neoclouds: This is just goes to show 1. Proof of Complexity = Validation of Moat. Neoclouds like $NBIS do it better and this is an actual competitive moat and margin opportunity (This is why $MSFT went to Nebius to sign a deal instead of building it out themselves). 2. Capital Efficiency Advantage. Neoclouds use Leasing / colocation for flexibility (e.g. NBIS in Patmos & Verne), workload allocations to maintain high utilization (while Oracle struggled with utilization). 3. Outsourcing Demand Increases Oracle and Hyperscalers might shift workloads to Neoclouds and sign more contracts if they have trouble with buildout (eg. MSFT with CRWV) 4. Oracle used discount prices here. Neoclouds can just price rationally on top of optimizing their margins. 5. Custom Infra Increases Margins Neoclouds like Nebius have custom orchestration stacks for GPU scheduling, lot of internal software and automation to maximize utilization and yield to sustain 50-70% gross margins compared to ORCL. This is news negative for Oracle and Hyperscaler buildout but actually bullish for specialized neocloud providers like $CRWV, $NBIS, and others.
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交易对英伟达系利空，对AMD等供应链其他环节利好。
@yield_addicted 关于这笔交易，我认为总体偏负面：$NVDA、$CRWV（以英伟达为中心）。 总体偏正面（几乎其他所有标的）：$AMD、NBIS、CIFR、IREN、TSM 等。 护城河叙事逻辑发生变化，导致下跌 2.5% 是合理的。
英文原文
@yield_addicted For the deal, I'd say net negative: $NVDA, $CRWV (Nvda centric) Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD, NBIS, CIFR, IREN, TSM, etc. The 2.5% drop makes sense off moat narrative changes.
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通过对比NBIS与CIFR走势，论证基本面改变后图表模式对股价预测的有效性。
我常调侃图表分析，但有时它对基于模式的推理（非技术分析 TA）确实有帮助。 历史不会重演，但相似行业的公司往往押韵。 当基本面发生重大变化时： 例如 $NBIS（64->100->86）与 $CIFR（+32% -> -18% -> 上涨）在 $170亿 MSFT 交易和 GOOGL 30亿交易后的表现。 我们可能会看到 CIFR 在回调后像 NBIS 一样上涨。 它遵循了相同的模式：先上涨 32%，然后下跌 18%，现在它开始像 NBIS 一样攀升。 同样的逻辑也适用于财报后的 AVGO（先回调，然后大幅反弹）和现在的 ORCL（财报亮眼，回调，然后大幅反弹），因为基本面发生了改变。 我想把一些 Reddit 风格的图表分析带到 X 上，但在我看来，这是图表分析真正有用的一次。
英文原文
I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA). History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors. With things material to fundamentals: Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% into rise) post $17B MSFT deal and GOOGL 3B deal. We'll likely see CIFR increase like NBIS after the dip. It followed the same pattern where it rose 32%, then dropped 18%, and now it's beginning it's ascent similar to NBIS. Same thing can be said about AVGO post earnings (then dip, then massive rally) and ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed. Thought I'd bring some Reddit style charting to X but this is one of the times generally when charting helps imo.
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NVDA与OpenAI互购资产，凸显AI巨头间深度绑定。
@Michael10011001 @AnaCintra24 这一切正在发生：$NVDA 购买价值 1000 亿美元的 OpenAI 股票，OpenAI 购买价值 1000 亿美元的 $NVDA GPU，并承诺向 $ORCL 投入 3000 亿美元，等等。
英文原文
@Michael10011001 @AnaCintra24 It's happening right now with $NVDA buying $100B OpenAI stock, OpenAI Buying $100B NVDA GPUs, promising $300B to $ORCL and so on.
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AI资本支出泡沫或2-3年破裂，降息可延缓8-12个月。
@AnaCintra24 人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)泡沫可能在2-3年内破裂。随着三次降息，我们至少还能让这场“抢椅子”游戏再持续8-12个月。
英文原文
@AnaCintra24 AI Capex bubble might pop in 2-3 years. With triple rate cut we keep the musical chairs moving for another 8-12 months at least
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质疑对方为何向随机用户咨询微软与英伟达的巨额合同事宜。
@IlanG05512373 你是在问一个随机的 X 用户关于 $MSFT 的事情吗？该用户做了尽职调查并给 $NBIS 签下了 170 亿美元的合同？
英文原文
@IlanG05512373 You're asking a random X user over $MSFT that did their due diligence and handed $NBIS a 17B contract?
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NBIS和CRWV是英伟达护城河关键，当前市值低估其远期收入。
这与 $NVDA 及其 GPU/ASIC（谷歌云 TPU、AWS Trainium）的 4T+ 论点相同，即超大规模云服务商能否取代英伟达。同样的逻辑也适用于 $NBIS。如果微软能如此快速地自建，他们不会签署 170 亿美元、为期 5 年的合同。如果你阅读了我的深度研究(DD)，NBIS 和 $CRWV 是英伟达保持护城河的战略解决方案。CRWV 和 NBIS 有助于防止超大规模云服务商掌握全部议价权，并阻止 Azure 等未来整合算力并压缩利润率。NBIS 有助于维持英伟达的护城河，这也是数百亿美元的合同收入开始从“七巨头”流向新云提供商的原因。250 亿美元的市场资本化与远期收入不匹配。
英文原文
That's the same 4T+ thesis with $NVDA and their GPUs/ASICs (Google Cloud TPUs, AWS Trainium) when hyperscalers could replace Nvidia. Same applies to $NBIS. MSFT wouldn't sign a 17B 5 year contract if they could build it out themselves this fast. If you read my DD, NBIS, $CRWV are Nvda's strategic solution to keeping their moat. CRWV, NBIS helps keep hyperscalers from having all the leverage + prevent Azure, others from consolidating compute and compressing margins down the road. NBIS helps maintain NVDA's moat and why hundreds of billions contracted revenue is already starting to flow from mag7 to the new neocloud providers. 25B marketcap does not align to forward revenue.
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指出AMD依赖台积电代工。
@alc2022 还有……$AMD 运行在 $TSM 之上。
英文原文
@alc2022 and... $AMD runs on $TSM.