· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AVGO$CIFR$GOOGL$MSFT$NBIS$ORCL
我常调侃图表分析，但有时它对基于模式的推理（非技术分析 TA）确实有帮助。 历史不会重演，但相似行业的公司往往押韵。 当基本面发生重大变化时： 例如 $NBIS（64->100->86）与 $CIFR（+32% -> -18% -> 上涨）在 $170亿 MSFT 交易和 GOOGL 30亿交易后的表现。 我们可能会看到 CIFR 在回调后像 NBIS 一样上涨。 它遵循了相同的模式：先上涨 32%，然后下跌 18%，现在它开始像 NBIS 一样攀升。 同样的逻辑也适用于财报后的 AVGO（先回调，然后大幅反弹）和现在的 ORCL（财报亮眼，回调，然后大幅反弹），因为基本面发生了改变。 我想把一些 Reddit 风格的图表分析带到 X 上，但在我看来，这是图表分析真正有用的一次。
I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA). History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors. With things material to fundamentals: Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% into rise) post $17B MSFT deal and GOOGL 3B deal. We'll likely see CIFR increase like NBIS after the dip. It followed the same pattern where it rose 32%, then dropped 18%, and now it's beginning it's ascent similar to NBIS. Same thing can be said about AVGO post earnings (then dip, then massive rally) and ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed. Thought I'd bring some Reddit style charting to X but this is one of the times generally when charting helps imo.