2026-03-28 · 供应链分析

阐述AI基础设施供应链中不可替代公司的投资逻辑和超额收益来源

涉及标的： $AAOI $AMZN $AXTI $IQE $LITE $MRVL $MSFT $SIVE $SOI

中文翻译

我的投资组合也因宏观因素出现回撤。年初至今收益现在是527%。在指数下跌7%之后。 - $AAOI“崩盘”从$30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE“崩盘”从$330 -> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI“崩盘”从$15 -> $70 -> $60… 我不会低估伊朗战争的影响。这会对流动性和能源产生严重影响，所以我已经降低了杠杆。但如果一家公司季度收入将从$1.34亿增长到预计每季度$15.4亿，这来自美国制造的光收发器(mount optical transceiver)产能爬坡…… 或者如果一家市值$36亿的小公司拥有超大规模云商光子学建设的材料供应链…… 或者一家市值$2.9亿的小型激光供应商$SIVE为$MRVL的共封装光学(CPO)项目或Jabil光收发器提供配套…… 或者像$LITE这样的光学巨头其EML产能已售罄到2028年…… 或者$SOI这家欧洲小公司提供硅光子学/共封装光学(CPO)所需的所有衬底。或者$IQE这家欧洲小公司拥有超出其估值数倍的隐性反应釜产能…… 或者像SK海力士这样的内存公司预计三年内创造的利润将超过其当前市值…… 在市场认识到它们对供应链的重要性过程中，股价上涨途中会有大量波动。但如果你无法绕过它们来规模化AI，或者它们已被纳入$AMZN或$MSFT的供应链中…… 也许它们会跑赢市场？

英文原文

My portfolio has drawdowns from Macro as well. YTD is now 527%. After the index crashed -7%. - $AAOI “crashed” from $30 -> $100 -> $96… - $LITE “crashed” from $330-> $800 -> $702… - $AXTI “crashed” from $15 -> $70 -> $60… I’m not underestimating the War in Iran. This has serious consequences to liquidity/energy, so I’ve winded down margin. But if a company is going from $134m quarterly revenue to projected $1.54B a quarter from Made in America optical transceiver ramps... or if the tiny $3.6B company owns the materials supply chain for the hyperscaler photonics buildout... or a tiny laser supplier at $290m in $SIVE feeds to $MRVL CPO programs or Jabil transcivers... or a optical giant like $LITE is sold out of EML capacity until 2028... or a small European company in $SOI provides all the substrates required for silicon photonics / CPO. or a small European company in $IQE has latent reactor capacity multiple times what their valued at… or a memory company like SK Hynix is projected to make more than what their current market cap is in 3 years… There’s going to be tons of volatility on the way up, as markets realize their importance to supply chains But if you can’t bypass them to scale AI. Or they’re designed into the supply chains of $AMZN or $MSFT. Maybe they tend to outperform the market?

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