2026-03-31 · 供应链分析

认为市场低估了 Nvidia 投资下游后带来的上游供应冲击。

涉及标的： $NVDA $COHR $LITE $MRVL $SIVE $MTSI $TSEM $GFS $AEHR $SOI

中文翻译

市场漏掉了 Nvidia 投资的含义：今天它向光学领域的 $COHR 投了 20 亿美元。向光学领域的 $LITE 投了 20 亿美元。今天又向光学领域的 $MRVL 投了 20 亿美元。 Nvidia 去年就用过同样的剧本。他们意识到 800G/1.6T 可插拔器件的推进会耗尽全球 EML 供给。所以他们接触了 $LITE、$COHR、Sumitomo，并提前预定了大部分产能。我们已经在他们股价里看到了反映：自从那轮严重供给紧张以来，$LITE 已经涨了 955%。现在我们看到同样的剧本在过去一个月里再次开始。只是这次是一个新的架构。而且这些交易都包含了几十亿美元的采购承诺和未来产能权利。所以……下一步是什么？CW / EML 和 CPO 瓶颈。 Nvidia 只是更喜欢投资下游玩家，但真正的供应紧张发生在上游。来自 $MTSI、$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR、Furukawa 和 Sumitomo 的激光供应商都在全速运转。 Win Semi、$TSEM、$GFS 这些晶圆代工也大概率在满负荷运转。整条供应链都会受益（比如 $AEHR 的测试、$SOI 的衬底）。但从晶圆代工到 ELS / CW 激光瓶颈的这两个环节，可能会是最大的受益者。 Nvidia 是下一轮发生什么的最大信号；现在只是等拐点到来的时间而已。

英文原文

The market are missing the implications from $NVDA investing: $2B into $COHR for optical. $2B into $LITE for optical. and $2B into $MRVL for optical today. Nvidia did this exact same playbook last year. They realized the push to 800G/1.6T pluggables would exhaust the global supply of EML. So they approached $LITE, $COHR, Sumitomo, and preallocated majority of production. And we've seen this reflected in their share price with $LITE rising 955% since the major supply squeeze. We're seeing the beginning of the same playbook happen now over the last month. Just for a new architecture, this time. As these deals included multibillion-dollar purchase commitments and future capacity rights. So... what's next? CW/EML and CPO bottlenecks. Nvidia just prefers to invest in downstream players. But the supply crunch happens upstream. Laser suppliers from $MTSI, $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and Sumitomo are on overdrive. Foundries from Win Semi, $TSEM, $GFS are likely on overdrive. The entire supply chain benefits (eg. testing from $AEHR, substrates with $SOI). But these two segments from foundries to ELS/CW laser chokepoints are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia is the biggest signal of what's coming next; it's just a waiting period for the inflection point to hit.

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