· 供应链分析

分析瑞典CPO上游激光供应商在供应链中的竞争优势和时机

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中文翻译

都是很好的问题!我的看法: - 随着$NVDA GTC大会的到来,CPO(共封装光学)今天正在达到拐点。所以我认为时机对了。之前的话还太早。 - 基本上没有被发现,就像我在供应链映射中提到的,大多数机构不会深入上游去精确定位主要玩家(从$AXTI就能看出这一点)。 - 斯德哥尔摩市场非常小众,关注的人不多。 - 他们进行了再融资,所以财务状况健康。债务是1200万美元可转换贷款(10.85%)和500万美元定期贷款(12%),对于超大规模供应商链来说微不足道。 至于规模方面:赢得半导体资质认证非常关键。 从我看来,这比$MSFT Maia 2028年的 captive model(如$SIVE光源 -> $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia)模式风险更低,基本上保证了未来从超大规模供应商链获得收入。 然后还有Ayar等很多潜力。 作为上游激光供应商,无论怎样都能赢,但它确实需要与$LITE、$MTSI、$OCHR等竞争。 我的论点是,时机足够早,可以根据$POET等公司的规格定制和联合设计cw DFB激光器,所以更多是设计嵌入。 同样适用于$POET和Marvell Celestial。

英文原文

All good questions! My thoughts: - With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early. - Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI). - Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it. - They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains. As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical. It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains. Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others. It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others. My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in. Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.

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