个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2208 条 · 第 36 / 45 页
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询问关于CVAT股票的深度投资逻辑。
@G77Harris 你对 $CVAT 是否有更深入的投资论点(Thesis)？非常希望能了解更多。
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@G77Harris Did you have a deeper thesis on $CVAT, would love to find out more
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预期META明日回调洗盘，计划周五加仓看涨期权。
@soulbiri1 这些 $META 的看涨期权(call options) 可能会大赚！ 我有点预期它明天会再次下跌以洗盘(shake out)，所以我打算在周五买入第二组看涨期权。
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@soulbiri1 These $META calls are probably going to print! I’m kinda expecting it to drop again tomorrow to shake people out so I was going to buy a second set of calls on Friday.
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询问博主对DNN股票的投资观点。
@finefornovv 我对后两者很熟悉，但你对 $DNN 的投资逻辑是什么？
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@finefornovv I’m familiar on the latter two but what’s your pitch on $DNN?
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计划研究WKEY的NAV与市值错配机会。
@dotsamaenjoyer 那我稍后去研究一下 $WKEY，看看净资产价值(NAV)/市值(MC)错配方面是否有异常，如果有机会我会发帖分享。感谢分享。
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@dotsamaenjoyer I’ll look into $WKEY later then to see if there’s anything up with NAV/MC mispricing and I’ll post if there’s an opportunity. Thanks for sharing
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质疑$WKEY NAV远高于市值的合理性，怀疑存在隐藏风险。
@dotsamaenjoyer 如果正如你所说，$WKEY 的净资产价值(NAV)远高于市值，那肯定有什么不对劲的地方。还有什么遗漏的信息好得不像真的吗？
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@dotsamaenjoyer There’s gotta be something off, their NAV is way above market cap for $WKEY if what you’re mentioning is true. Is there anything else missing that’s too good to be true?
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Meta核心盈利强劲，AI支出争议属叙事，作者认为可轻松买入。
@DiscountedBTC 对于 $META，其核心盈利表现卓越，若忽略一次性税收影响，其每股收益(EPS)大幅超预期。这仅仅是关于人工智能资本支出(AI Capex)是陷入无底洞还是会产生投资回报率(ROI)的争论，但这只是市场叙事。对我来说，这是轻松买入的机会。
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@DiscountedBTC For $META their core earnings were stellar and if you ignore the one time tax they strongly beat EPS. It’s just an argument of whether AI capex is going into a black hole or will have ROI but that’s just narratives. Easy buy for me
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因IV低且看好复苏，博主倾向用看涨期权杠杆做多META。
@blu400_ 隐含波动率(IV)极低。我也可以买入数百万股，但使用看涨期权(Calls)可以用少量资本获得极高的杠杆。我也对复苏充满信心，这就是为什么我接受在 $META 上使用杠杆。
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@blu400_ IV is extremely low. I could buy millions in shares too but with calls, it’s really high leverage for low capital. I’m also confident on recovery which is why I’m fine with leverage on $META
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博主回应指出，将重新核实 $MQ 的最新情况。
@BarnieTaintpipe 好的，我会再仔细看看，谢谢指出。我之前关于 $MQ 的记忆可能有些偏差，正如你提到的，应该有更近况的更新。
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@BarnieTaintpipe All right I’ll take another look thanks for pointing that out. I was just going off memory for $MQ, but there were probably more recent updates as you mentioned
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看好META财报，认为股价下跌系税务影响，预计短期反弹。
@soulbiri1 是的，很好的买入机会，财报表现优异，股价下跌看起来是因为一次性税务影响。 我不喜欢其资本支出(capex)的投入，但这目前只是叙事层面的问题，因为人们都在为其他“七巨头(mag7)”的资本支出欢呼。 $META 可能在一两周内就会恢复。
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@soulbiri1 Yeah great buy, stellar earnings, looks off due to one-time tax. Don’t like capex spend but it’s just narrative at this point since people are cheering on other mag7 capex spend. $META will probably recover in a week or two
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不看好MQ因依赖Square，更看好DAVE。
@BarnieTaintpipe 我早就知道这两家公司了。凭直觉，我不看好 $MQ，因为如果 Cash App 是其客户，它就对 Square 存在单一依赖。此外，Square 未来也可以推出自己的卡片业务。 相比之下，我更喜欢 $DAVE。
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@BarnieTaintpipe I’m aware of them both already. Off the top of my head $MQ not a fan because singular dependency on Square if that was the customer for Cash App. Also they can launch their own card offerings in the future. $DAVE I liked a lot more
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对WLAC有信心，但指出SPAC IPO等待期长且正式申报时往往已晚。
@Edu4rdo26 我对 $WLAC 相当有信心，我只是说等待期很长，很多人没有耐心等待 SPAC IPO 期间。但一旦你等到正式申报，很多时候已经太晚了。
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@Edu4rdo26 Oh I’m pretty confident on $WLAC, I just said there’s a huge waiting period and lot of people don’t have patience to wait for the SPAC IPO period. But once you wait for the actual filing a lot of times it’s pretty late
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Meta 或短期回调，建议利用高流动性分批建仓。
@rioferdy838 $META 可能会经历为期两天的抛售，日内低点下跌 15% 或随后回到 650 美元。这就是为什么我说成本平均法（Cost Averaging）很重要。 通常财报发布后不会立即买入，但由于高流动性，Mag7 是个例外。 另外更正一下之前的帖子，是 2-6 天的反弹，而非完全恢复。
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@rioferdy838 $META might 2 day flush so -15% intraday low or back to $650 later. Which is why I said cost averaging is important. Usually you don’t buy right after earnings but Mag7 is an exception due to high liquidity. Also correction to post, 2-6 day recovery, not full recovery
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博主在META抛售中加仓看涨期权，视其为巨大机会。
1-2月期间，我在 $META 的看涨期权上增加了6张合约。去年4月也发生过同样的情况，当时花了2-6天才完全恢复。业绩超预期，基本面完好无损。关于资本支出(capex)的故事也一样。可能只是两天的抛售，所以我正在通过成本平均法(cost averaging)加仓，但这次抛售是一个巨大的机会。
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Added 6 figures in Jan-Feb $META calls. Same thing happened last year April and it took 2-6 days for full recovery. Earnings beat, fundamentals in tact. Same story about capex spend. Might be 2 day flush so cost averaging but this selloff is a huge opportunity. https://t.co/S3CwYsdaU4
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讨论$META看涨期权策略，倾向短期限以应对波动。
@gunnaosrs 是的，$META 的看涨期权(call options)看起来像是白送的钱，你的心态很对。不过我不会做大幅跳跃(leaps)，可能会选择期限更短的看涨期权，因为很多时候需要2-3天才能恢复。 我在想第二天(day-2)的抛售，或者如果今天盘中下跌15%以上，但让我们看看会发生什么。
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@gunnaosrs Yeah $META calls seem like free money, you have the right mindset. I'm not doing leaps though probably shorter dated calls since it takes 2-3 days for recovery a lot of times. I was thinking day-2 flush or if it drops 15%+ intra-day today but we'll see.
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若消除EPFA及稀释顾虑，NUAI或为优质投资标的。
@consmnesique 是的，我会去参观 $NUAI，并感谢 @Thebullwhisper、@chaptimustrades 和其他提到它的人的评论。我一个月左右的主要担忧是 EPFA 和未来稀释。但如果这些都不存在了，那可能是一项很棒的投資。
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@consmnesique Yep I'll visit $NUAI and appreciate the other comments from @Thebullwhisper, @chaptimustrades and others mentioning it. My main concern a month or so ago was that EPFA and future dilution. But if that's gone, would probably be a great investment.
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计划研究DBRG，并观察META财报以决定期权交易。
@gunnaosrs 我也需要研究一下 $DBRG，我时不时就会听到这个名字被提及。目前我个人正在关注 $META 的财报，以决定是否要买入期权。
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@gunnaosrs I need to look at $DBRG too, I keep hearing that name pop up from time to time. I'm just personally looking at $META earning right now to see if I want to enter options.
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询问 $FIX 与 $LGN IPO 后的资产负债表对比数据。
@gunnaosrs 你手头是否有 $FIX 与 $FIN 在 IPO 后最新的资产负债表估算数据，比如资产、债务和现金？据我所知，Legence 融资了 7.28 亿美元，但即便如此，他们手头仍有约 1.006 亿美元现金，约 22 亿美元资产，以及 16-17 亿美元债务。
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@gunnaosrs Do you have the current estimated balance sheet like assets, debt, cash on hand of $FIX vs $LGN on hand by any chance (after IPO)? From what I've read Legence raised $728M but even after that they still have ~$100.6m cash on hand, ~2.2B assets, with $1.6-1.7B debt.
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认同LGN看多逻辑，指出其债务风险，强调七巨头供应链标的价值。
@gunnaosrs 是的，那正是我内部思考过的相同论点。 目前我听到的关于 $LGN 的负面消息只有债务问题以及与私募股权(PE)基金相关的某些事项，但我并未深入调查。 每当看到许多“七巨头(Mag7)”公司使用某家企业的服务时，我就会非常感兴趣（例如 $ALAB、$TSM、$CRWV）。
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@gunnaosrs Yeah that was my same thesis I was thinking about internally. Only negatives I've heard about $LGN so far were debt and something with P/E funds but I haven't looked into it too much. Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)
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认为当前是逢低买入良机，但反对非必要扩大资本支出。
@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga 我个人的看法是，这是一个不错的逢低买入(dip buy)机会，但与此同时，我反对在非必要情况下扩大资本支出(capex)投入。
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@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga My personal take is that it’s a good dip buy but at the same time I disagree with scaling capex spend when it’s not required.
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看好NBIS涨至400美元，受降息利好及估值低估支撑。
@__visionxry__ 我仍然认为 $NBIS 会从 $121 涨到 $400，今天应该交易在 ~$158 左右。市场可能只是在等待财报以获取更清晰的指引，即使你可以自行估算。 Neocloud（新云）板块可能是降息的最大受益者，这也是利好因素。
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@__visionxry__ I still think $NBIS hits $400 from $121 and should be trading ~$158 today. Markets might just waiting until earnings for clearer guidance, even if you can estimate them. Neocloud sector is probably the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts too so that helps https://t.co/dO6F8PVCIH
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建议买入TSM 3月300看涨期权，视溢价情况决定平仓或行权。
@DigestingX 我个人可能会买入 $TSM 3月的 $300 看涨期权(Call Options)，并在1月卖出。如果溢价(Premium)大幅飙升，就在临近到期日时行权(Row Exercise)转为股票。
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@DigestingX I'd probably personally do $TSM March $300 calls and sell in Jan. If it blows past premium, then just exercise it into shares closer to the date.
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重申对新云板块整体看涨，强调NBIS的高非对称回报潜力。
@aasbadalados 我说过我对几乎所有新云(Neocloud)公司都持看涨态度，包括 $WYFI！ 我在其他帖子中提到的唯一一点是，与其他新云公司相比，像 $NBIS 这样的公司具有更高的非对称回报(asymmetrical returns)。 在这条推文中，我并没有对任何单一个股发表评论，这些都只是例子。
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@aasbadalados I said I’m bullish on just about almost every single Neocloud, including $WYFI! The only point I made on other posts was that some neoclouds have higher asymmetrical returns than others like $NBIS. On this post, I’m not making any single stock commentary, all were just examples
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祝贺粉丝高回报，看好NBIS受降息和季节性利好。
@accounting_ds 恭喜，年初至今(YTD) 300%+ 的回报真的令人惊叹。随着未来几个月再降息两次以及季节性顺风，对 $NBIS 应该非常有利。 是的，如果现在的策略有效就继续做下去，没有理由改变。
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@accounting_ds Congrats, 300%+ return is really amazing YTD. With 2 more rate cuts and seasonality tailwind for the next few months, should be really positive for $NBIS. Yeah just keep doing what you're doing if it's working, no reason to change.
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不建议追高BE和CLS，建议采用定投策略建仓。
@rioferdy838 我说它们是了解某个通用板块表现如何的良好代理指标，但我个人不会在上涨25%后追高 $BE 或 $CLS。但如果你要建仓，采用定投(DCA)策略会比较明智。
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@rioferdy838 I said they were good proxies to know how well a general segment was doing but I personally wouldn’t chase $BE or $CLS after a 25% increase. But if you were to enter positions would be smart to DCA
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点评GLXY等标的表现，IREN遭降级，CIFR与CRWV表现良好。
@mikelfilko 是的，$GLXY、$NBIS 和 $WLAC 是一组不错的标的。我认为只有 $IREN 的投资者对今天的双重降级感到有些意外，但其余标的表现良好，例如 $CIFR 获得升级，$CRWV 获得美国政府合同。
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@mikelfilko Yeah $GLXY, $NBIS, and $WLAC are a good bunch. I think only $IREN investors were in a bit of a surprise with the double downgrade today but the rest are performing well like $CIFR got upgraded and $CRWV US gov contracts.
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IREN遭下调至卖出，分析师指其云业务估值非理性繁荣。
把它当作原因挺可笑的哈哈，但肯定不是。 不过，$IREN 的投资者如果认为能以93%的毛利率(Gross Margins)扩展到数十亿美元的收入，那他们对利润率(Margins)的计算确实非理性地错了，但无论如何它还是一只好股票。 “H.C. Wainwright 将 IREN 从买入(Buy)大幅下调至卖出(Sell)，目标价(Target Price)从36美元上调至45美元。分析师在研报中告诉投资者，应在当前股价水平获利了结。该公司认为，投资者对 Iren 云业务(Cloud Business)的乐观情绪‘已达到非理性繁荣(Irrational Exuberance)的地步。’”
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Funny to think of it as the cause lol but definitely not. But yeah $IREN investors did their calculations on margins irrationally wrong if they think they can scale to billions of revenue off 93% gross margins but it’s a good stock either way. “H.C. Wainwright double downgraded (IREN) to Sell from Buy with a of $45, up from $36. Investors should be taking profits at current share levels, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes investor optimism around Iren’s cloud business “has reached a point of irrational exuberance.”
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建议小资金集中成长股，大资金降风险，首选$NBIS。
@accounting_ds 所以这取决于你的投资组合规模。规模越小，我越鼓励你在成长股上集中持仓。当规模变大时，即使存在非对称上行空间，也没有理由承担那么多风险。但如果你要集中持仓，$NBIS 可能是最好的选择。
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@accounting_ds So it depends on your portfolio size. The smaller it is, the more I'd encourage concentration in growth. When you get to larger sizes, there's no reason to take that much risk, even if there's asymmetrical upside. But if you're doing concentration $NBIS is probably the best
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台海地缘风险可控，TSM垄断地位稳固且领先INTC至少8年。
问得好，对于 $TSM 来说，台湾入侵问题始终是一个令人烦恼的逆风因素。这是一个过于关键的国家安全问题，我确信美国会与任何威胁台湾的国家开战，因为台湾处于整个供应链和 AI 基础设施的核心地位。而且我确信没有哪个国家愿意与美国直接开战。至于护城河部分，$TSM 几乎是全球都在使用的垄断者。美国支持 $INTC 不会改变其至少落后 8 年的事实。
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Good question, for $TSM it's always going to be an annoying headwind in terms of an invasion of Taiwan. It's too critical of a national security issue and I'm confident the US would go to war with anyone who threatens Taiwan due to the fact they're central to the whole supply chain and AI infrastructure. And I'm confident no country would want to get in a direct war with America. As for the moat part, $TSM is kinda a monopoly that everyone in the world is using. US backing up $INTC won't change the back that they're way too far behind for the next 8 years at least.
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建议持有HOOD，指出其界面友好且大单成交更透明。
@cmachdop 那么继续持有 $HOOD 没问题！在较大交易量下，订单成交的“挑拣”（Cherry picking with fills）现象通常会更明显。此外，Robinhood 确实非常用户友好，相比之下，查看其他经纪商的期权链（option chains）会显得相当令人困惑。
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@cmachdop Sticking with $HOOD is fine then! Cherry picking with fills usually is a lot more apparent at larger sizes. Also Robinhood is really user friendly, looking at option chains on other brokerages gets pretty confusing in comparison.
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强调HPC矿企执行风险与利润率，解释为何选择$NBIS。
再次强调，这并非针对 $BITF 或 $CLSK 等矿企的看空帖子。我在主题上对 Neoclouds 极度看好，并对 $WULF 或 $IREN 等特定矿企持看涨态度。但喜欢它们并不意味着我应该持有所有相关标的。 这是一篇关于执行风险和选择性的细致分析，因为并非每家从事高性能计算(HPC)的矿企/公司都能成功。 我特别指的是在规模化时的利润率，涉及的是 HPC 业务板块，而非比特币(BTC)挖矿或储备（如果你了解我的历史，知道我对后者也极度看好）。 除了解释我个人为何选择 $NBIS 外，我并不支持或反对任何特定的矿企。我相信该领域还会有像 $WULF 这样的其他赢家。 我只是在强调执行风险，并指出人们看待这些公司的视角（关注兆瓦级建设而非考虑利润率）可能是错误的。
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Again this is not a bear post on miners like $BITF or $CLSK. I am omega bullish thematically on Neoclouds and bullish on certain miners like $WULF or $IREN. Just because I like them doesn't mean I should own them all. This is a nuanced post on execution risk and selectivity as not every single miner/company that does HPC will succeed. I'm specifically talking about HPC segments when it comes to margins at scale, not BTC mining or reserves (which I am also super bullish on if you know my history). I'm also not arguing for or against any specific miner aside from explaining why I personally chose $NBIS. I'm sure there will be other winners like $WULF in the space too. I'm simply highlighting execution risk and pointing out that the lens people are looking at the companies (MW buildout instead of considering margins) might be wrong.
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澄清Coreweave曾为矿企，质疑对方观点意图。
@NoNameBitcoiner $CRWV 在以太坊仍采用工作量证明(Proof of Work)机制时曾进行挖矿，因此 Coreweave 在转向高性能计算(HPC)之前是一家矿企。不太确定你想表达什么。
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@NoNameBitcoiner $CRWV mined Ethereum when they still did pow, so Coreweave was a miner before pivoting to hpc. Not quite sure where you're going with this.
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指出$HOOD因路由至做市商导致成交差，卖期权时损失巨大。
@cmachdop 纯粹是执行问题。$HOOD 将订单路由给做市商(MMs)，因此你的成交质量更差。当你卖出期权时，这种影响会被放大，因为你在成交价上的损失高达数千美元，而节省的佣金却只有几美元。
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@cmachdop Purely execution. $HOOD routes orders through MMs so you get worse fill. This compounds a ton when you write options when you lose thousands off fill vs a few dollars in fees.
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建议观望，认为NBIS相对未来潜力严重低估。
@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 我个人会选择观望等待，我认为 $NBIS 相对于其未来潜力而言被严重低估。
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@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 I’d personally wait it out, I think $NBIS is way undervalued relative to forward potential
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看好Neocloud板块，但提示规模化执行风险并调整持仓。
@theBTCMiningGuy 所以我提出的观点是细微的，我仍然看好 $IREN、$WULF、$CIFR 等股票，并相信 Neocloud 板块将迅速扩张。只是指出在规模化过程中并非所有执行都会完美，存在现实的 downside risk（下行风险），我个人也调整了投资组合头寸。
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@theBTCMiningGuy So the point I made was nuanced, I’m still bullish on stocks like $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR and believe the Neocloud sector will expand rapidly. Just pointing out realistic downside risk in that not all execution will be pretty at scale and I personally changed portfolio positioning
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看好$WULF，认为其95亿长期合资协议虽营收释放慢但规模可观。
@poemaran 没错！在我看来，$WULF 是这批公司中表现较好的之一，尤其是在刚刚宣布的 95 亿美元新合资企业(JV)之后。 我认为合同期限超过 25 年，因此营收增长(Revenue Ramp)可能真的非常缓慢（与 5 年期合同相比），但鉴于其市值(MC)，这一规模相当可观，是个好消息。
英文原文
@poemaran Yep! $WULF is one of the better ones out of the bunch imo, especially after the new JV that just got announced for $9.5B. It was over 25 years I think so revenue ramp likely really slow (compared to a 5Y deal) but just given the MC it’s really sizable and great news.
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博主回应质疑，指出对方缺乏定量论据，仅以性格攻击和拖延回应。
@jarad1821 我很乐意现在就回应关于 $IREN 或 $NBIS 的任何观点。但到目前为止，你还没有给出任何定量论据供我反驳。你所做的只是以“过度自信”等性格特征为由说我的论点错误，然后默认“几年后再见”。
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@jarad1821 I'm happy to address any points about $IREN or $NBIS now. But so far you haven't given a single quantitative argument to respond to. All you've done was say my thesis is wrong because of character traits such as "overconfidence", then default to "come back in a few years"
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回应质疑，要求对方就NBIS提出量化论点而非人身攻击。
@jarad1821 如果你想在这里提出关于 $NBIS 的量化论点，我很乐意回应。否则，通过“过度自信”和“自我归因”等人身攻击来否定投资逻辑是站不住脚的。
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@jarad1821 If you'd like to put up a quantitative argument about $NBIS here, I'm happy to respond. Otherwise, projection through personal attacks like "overconfidence" and "self attribution" to dismiss a thesis doesn't hold up.
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指出$CRWV在百亿营收规模下利润率将因规模效应而改变。
@MEijkelenborg 你忽略了规模效应。你可以展示在季度营收2000万美元或1.05亿美元时的利润率，但一旦产能建设达到如$CRWV所预期的季度营收10亿美元以上的规模，执行力和利润率都会发生变化。
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@MEijkelenborg You're missing at scale. You can show margins at $20m Q/revenue or $105M Q/revenue but execution and margins will change once you get to the projected scale based on capacity buildout like $1B+ Q/revenue what $CRWV has.
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持有能源股中期看涨，并将矿工股利润轮动至NBIS。
是的，$FLNC、$SEI 和 $TE 都是数据中心建设扩张的受益者。除了其他持仓外，我在 T1 Energy 的看涨期权上目前亏损约 30%，这主要受其 7000 万美元稀释消息的影响，但由于这是一个不错的能源板块一篮子投资，我打算再持有一段时间。 近期许多新闻对能源板块来说也是极度看涨（omega bullish），因此我很乐意中期持有。 特别是考虑到特朗普在 Quantum、关键矿产以及可能是美国本土制造的能源如 $TE 中持有股份。 我个人刚刚将矿工股（miners）的利润转移，进行了向新云（neocloud）板块的轮动，买入 $NBIS，不涉及其他细分领域。
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Yeah so $FLNC, $SEI, $TE are beneficiaries of data center buildout. Aside from the others, I'm actually down right now ~30% on T1 Energy calls though after the $70M dilution news, but holding a bit longer since it's a decent segment basket for energy. Lot of the recent news is omega bullish too for energy so happy mid term hold. Especially with Trump taking stakes in Quantum, Critical Minerals, and possibly American made energy like $TE. I personally just moved profits from miners -> neocloud sector rotation into $NBIS, not other segments.
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指出仅CRWV具备规模化现金流可见性，其他公司尚未实现。
@MEijkelenborg 你忽略了现金流可见性以及规模化效应。目前只有 $CRWV 在财报中体现了这一点，其他公司尚未实现规模化收入，且利润率也未显现。
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@MEijkelenborg You're missing cash-flow visibility and at scale. Only $CRWV has that show up in earnings right now, none of the companies have fully executed revenue at scale yet with margins showing up for it.
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作者认为NBIS风险收益比优于IREN，但承认IREN具高投机潜力。
嗯，我仍然坚持认为 $NBIS 具有最高的非对称回报(asymmetrical return)，与 $IREN 相比，其下行风险更低，上行空间更大。这得益于其现有的超大规模客户(hyperscaler)合约、随客户同步扩张的子公司，以及拥有全栈(full-stack)能力的更高利润率业务。 另一方面，我同意 $IREN 因其产能和基础设施而具有极高的投机性上行空间。 我曾同时持有这两只股票，同时持有两者也没问题，但我认为在矿企股价上涨后，Nebius 的风险收益比(risk-reward)更好。 讨论这些观点很好！
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Hmm, I still maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return, with lower downside, high upside compared to $IREN with existing hyperscaler deals, subsidiaries scaling alongside them, and a higher margin business with full-stack. On the other hand, I'd agree $IREN has a high speculative upside due to capacity and infrastructure. I've owned both and it's fine have both, I just think risk-reward is better for Nebius after the runup on miners. It's good to discuss those points!
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博主计划在当前价位重新买入$HIMS，并看好周一的连续竞价拍卖。
@jliljliljlil @DeepValueBagger 我目前没有任何 $HIMS 的头寸，我可能会在这个价位再次买入。 我在16%的跌幅时买入，在反弹4-5%时卖出，此后一直空仓。 但周一的连续竞价拍卖(CSP)听起来很有希望。
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@jliljliljlil @DeepValueBagger I dont have any $HIMS position right now, I'll probably buy in again at this level. I bought at that 16% drop, sold on a 4-5% recovery, and haven't had any positions since. But CSP for Monday sounds promising.
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建议忽略可疑交易，聚焦微软等大客户合同及NBIS等核心标的。
@adenois @RJCcapital 是的，我可能错了，股价可能会随机拉出一根100%的大阳线，但下次还是应该相信我对那笔与某家东南亚随机公司达成的14亿美元交易的直觉判断。 关注超大规模云服务商（Hyperscaler）如 $MSFT 类型的合同，并专注于 $NBIS 及其同行要安全得多。
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@adenois @RJCcapital Yeah I could be wrong and the stock pulls a random 100% green candle but should just trust my gut about the $1.4B deal with a random SEA company next time. Lot safer to look at hyperscaler $MSFT type contracts and just focus on $NBIS and co.
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博主表示对WLAC非常看好，此前因未关注SPAC而不知其存在。
@1995bearjew 我对 $WLAC 非常看好，只是在一个月前发布原始论点时还不知道它的存在，因为 SPAC（特殊目的收购公司）Neoclouds 当时并不在我的关注范围内。
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@1995bearjew I'm very bullish $WLAC, just didn't know it existed 1 month ago when I made the original thesis post since SPAC Neoclouds weren't really on my radar.
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LTC因政府停摆致ETF延期，但作者认为其支付效用高且被低估。
哈哈，$LTC 原本打算作为短线交易，Litecoin ETF 获批概率高达 95%，计划是在获批确认时卖出，并可能布局新的国库相关标的。结果政府停摆一个月，导致 ETF 延期。运气确实不太好。但从基本面来看，我认为由于其在支付领域的高实用性相对于低市值，该资产被低估了。
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lol $LTC supposed to be a shorter play, Litecoin ETF gets approved 95% chance, then just sell into approval acceptance and possibly new treasury plays. Then government gets shut down for a month so ETFs get delayed. Yeah not the best luck. Fundamentally I think the asset is undervalued because of its high utility in payments still vs. low market cap.
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回顾NBIS反弹，分析TGT分红前策略及LTC受政府停摆影响的ETF进展。
我最近一直在发关于 $NBIS 的帖子，因为那30%的跌幅，导致我有一阵子忘了聊其他股票！跌到 $94 时的上行空间简直惊人，即使你没抓到真正的底部。 我之前提到的 $LTC 到 $TGT 的短期催化剂帖子依然有效，因为有人问起。 $TGT 11月12日的分红催化剂，我个人会持有，但由于它已经在28%-32%的隐含波动率下上涨了8%+，考虑到财报日(ER)是11月19日，再持有两周或稍微减仓我都觉得没问题。随你决定。 对于 $LTC 和其他股票，策略仍在进行中，只需等待政府停摆结束以及ETF获批。 我只是没料到政府停摆会持续一个月，所以ETF被延迟了。
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I've been posting about $NBIS recently because of the 30% drop that I forgot to talk about other stocks for awhile! Upside on the drop to $94 was insane, even if you didn't catch the true bottom. Near term catalyst posts that I mentioned still stands for $LTC to $TGT since others ask about it. $TGT Nov 12th dividend catalyst, I'd personally hold but since it already went up 8%+ on 28%-32% IV, I don't see many issues holding another 2 weeks since ER is Nov 19th or just trimming some. Up to you. For $LTC and others, the play is still ongoing, just need to wait for government shutdown to finish and for the ETF to be approved. I just did not expect a 1 month government shutdown so ETFs got delayed.
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建议趁市值停滞、基本面改善时重新买入$HIMS。
@DeepValueBagger 过去几个季度，$HIMS 的市值基本没有波动，而基本面却在改善。因此我会利用这个时机重新买入。它从 40 多美元涨到 63 美元的次数我已经数不清了。
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@DeepValueBagger It's been a few quarters where $HIMS market cap hasn't really moved while fundamentals improved. So I'd use this as a buying time to get back in. The amount of times it swung from $40s -> $63 I lost count.
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反驳IREN支持者，指出其拥有模式虚高毛利，NBIS租赁模式调整后利润率更优。
所以当讨论转向人身攻击时，可能意味着你的论点站不住脚。 大喊“我赢了”、“被喷了”、“闭嘴”，并进行诸如“财务文盲”之类的人身攻击以乞求 $IREN 受众的点赞，在关心实质内容的独立思考者看来并不光彩。 但既然你并非善意讨论，我就此收尾：你曲解了成本结构，且未对利润率进行标准化处理。 仅看你的陈述：“$IREN 支付的折旧微乎其微，几乎不影响利润率。”然后将其与财报数据（2025财年 -1.81亿美元）对比，一切不言自明。 但我再次把这段话放这里供你重读： “计入费用确认、折旧摊销(D&A)及其他 overhead 后，$IREN 的利润率可能降至60%以下。 $IREN 拥有数据中心，将巨额基础设施成本（服务器、机架、设施）计入资产负债表，随后通过折旧摊销(D&A)计入运营支出(OpEx)，从而虚高了92%的毛利率数字。 $NBIS 租赁容量，因此同样的成本作为租金、电力和带宽出现在销售成本(COGS)中，完全成本约为71.2%，但正如你所说，部分基础设施计入了运营支出。 $NBIS 的20-F文件指出：‘销售成本主要包括数据中心设施的运营和托管成本，以及数据中心内的电力、公用事业和维护成本……’ 如果你将 $IREN 的季度折旧摊销（约7520万美元）和基础设施 overhead 重新分配到销售成本中，$NBIS 以更高的完全加载利润率表现更优。"
英文原文
So when a discussion shifts to personal attacks, it probably means your thesis is not holding up. Screaming "I WIN", "GET ROASTED", "SHUT YOU UP" and going into personal attacks like "financially illiterate" to beg for $IREN audience likes doesn't look too good to independent thinkers who care about substance. But just to close it out since you're not discussing in good faith, you're misrepresenting the cost structure and not normalizing margins. Just looking at your statements like "The depreciation $IREN pays is so minuscule that it hardly impacts margins at all." and then just comparing it to the financial reports like (-$181M FY 2025) says it all. But I'll just drop this here again for you to re-read: "With expense recognition and with D&A and other overhead, $IREN margins can drop below 60%. For $IREN owning datacenters pushes massive infrastructure costs (servers, racks, facilities) into the balance sheet and later into OpEx (via D&A), inflating that 92% gross margin number. $NBIS leases capacity, so those same costs appear in COGS, as rent, power, and bandwidth to a fuller cst 71.2%., but as you mentioned some infra goes into opex. NBIS’s 20-F:" Cost of revenues primarily consists of costs of operation and co-location of data center facilities, the electricity, utility and maintenance costs in data centers…” If you reallocate IREN’s quarterly D&A (~$75.2 M), infra overhead into cost of revenue, $NBIS outperforms with a more fully loaded margin."
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指出比较IREN与NBIS毛利率需标准化，调整后NBIS表现更优。
你在尝试比较两个结构上截然不同的事物时误解了数据，且未对毛利率进行标准化处理。尽管遭受人身攻击，我仍在回复，因为这会误导他人。考虑到费用确认、折旧与摊销(D&A)及其他 overhead，$IREN 的利润率可能降至 60% 以下。$IREN 拥有数据中心，将大量基础设施成本（服务器、机架、设施）计入资产负债表，随后通过 D&A 计入运营支出(OpEx)，从而虚高了 92% 的毛利率数字。$NBIS 租赁容量，因此同样的成本作为租金、电力和带宽出现在销售成本(COGS)中，完全成本约为 71.2%，但正如你所说，部分基础设施计入了运营支出。$NBIS 的 20-F 文件指出：“收入成本主要包括数据中心设施的运营和托管成本，以及数据中心内的电力、公用事业和维护成本……”如果你将 $IREN 的季度 D&A（约 7520 万美元）和基础设施 overhead 重新分配到收入成本中，$NBIS 在更全面的利润率下表现更优。这是基于你的数据，尽管他们此前有过非公认会计准则(non-GAAP)分部披露。因此，声称 $IREN 93% 的毛利率并与 $NBIS 71% 的毛利率进行比较是没有意义的，因为必须对毛利率进行标准化处理。
英文原文
You're misunderstanding the data while trying to compare two structurally different things as gross profit before normalizing it. Reason I'm still replying despite personal attacks now is because this is misleading other people. With expense recognition and with D&A and other overhead, $IREN margins can drop below 60%. For $IREN owning datacenters pushes massive infrastructure costs (servers, racks, facilities) into the balance sheet and later into OpEx (via D&A), inflating that 92% gross margin number. $NBIS leases capacity, so those same costs appear in COGS, as rent, power, and bandwidth to a fuller cst 71.2%., but as you mentioned some infra goes into opex. NBIS’s 20-F: “Cost of revenues primarily consists of costs of operation and co-location of data center facilities, the electricity, utility and maintenance costs in data centers…” If you reallocate IREN’s quarterly D&A (~$75.2 M), infra overhead into cost of revenue, $NBIS outperforms with a more fully loaded margin. This is going off your data, even though they've had nongaap segment disclosures before. So trying to claim $IREN 93% gross margins and then comparing it to $NBIS 71% doesnt make sense, when you have to normalize gross margins.
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看好新云板块，认为NBIS因软件栈具备最佳风险收益比。
我对新云（Neoclouds）持看涨态度，包括 $IREN。查看我的发帖历史，我曾持有包括 $WULF、$CIFR 等在内的各种头寸。我唯一的观点是，$NBIS 因其软件栈（Software Stack）而拥有最高的非对称回报（风险最低，上行空间最大）。 https://t.co/TnUqmvvFdd
英文原文
I'm bullish on Neoclouds, including $IREN. If you look at my post history, I've had positions in everything including $WULF, $CIFR, etc. The only point I've made was $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return (lowest risk, highest upside) because of its software stack. https://t.co/TnUqmvvFdd