2025-12-30 · 供应链分析

分析InP材料供应瓶颈，通过历史案例说明关键材料博弈论，预判超大规模云商将抢购InP衬底产能。

涉及标的： $AMZN $AXTI $DOWA $GOOGL $LITE $MSFT $NVDA

中文翻译

当我发WSB帖子时，我半开玩笑地提到$AXTI。但对于极端瓶颈和InP供应冲击，我可不是开玩笑的。这是一个关于关键材料博弈论的呼唤。如果我们回顾历史上许多瓶颈案例： 1. 镝(Dysprosium)：约2300%涨幅（约$100/kg -> $2400/kg，2010-11年） 2. 氖气(Neon Gas)：约1000%-2000%涨幅（2022年） 3. 铑(Rhodium)：约$3,000/盎司 -> 约$29,000/盎司（约860%）当前铟(In)的价格涨幅与其他材料相比如何？ 89%：（约$440/kg -> 约$832/kg）。用于半导体的关键材料（如用于光刻激光器的氖气），因为芯片制造商如英特尔和三星在乌克兰冲突期间进行了储备，价格暴涨超过2000%。他们吸收了成本，因为氖气只占芯片价值的一小部分。与氖气一样，磷化铟(InP)是一种关键的"赋能"材料。晶圆成本相对于AI集群成本（$100的晶圆对比$30,000的GPU）来说很小。超大规模云商宁愿吸收巨大的价格上涨，也不愿延迟部署。InP目前还没有出现这种情况，但我们很可能会看到。传统分析师和许多AI模型不知道如何建模关键瓶颈，因为历史上很少有这样的案例：一种极其廉价的商品（如InP，TAM只有几亿美元）突然成为价值数万亿美元的AI建设中最关键的材料。目前，超大规模云商可能已经向下游供应商Coherent/$LITE下了订单，但可能没有意识到激光器生产和产能受到上游材料短缺的制约而排满。 InP衬底（$AXTI + Sumitomo + JX生产）和磷化铟原料（$AXTI、Vital、$DOWA）都存在供应储备，需求超过供应数倍。 $NVDA最初通过锁定EML大量产能加剧了供应短缺。但短缺早在超大规模云商扩产之前就已经存在，大部分需求将在2026年底至2027年Trainium或Maia出现时涌入。但如何绕过原始瓶颈并确保AI部署？直接从（$AXTI、Sumitomo）购买衬底产能，或者更进一层，购买InP原料并将其交给衬底生产商，以确保谷歌的TPU项目不会停滞。与其他关键材料（如氖气用于光刻激光器）类似，磷化铟和InP衬底对整个AI建设更为关键： 1. Nvidia：InfiniBand / NVLink（光学 - 800G/1.6T EML光模块）- 对InP高度依赖 2. Google：Jupiter / Apollo（光学 - OCS），高度依赖 3. Microsoft：Azure Maia：高（800G DR4/FR4） 4. Meta：F16 / Artemis（800G）高这还不包括其他Mag7公司如$AMZN或使用光子技术扩展ASIC的其他公司。目前，分析师基于TAM对InP公司进行建模。例如，2024年InP晶圆市场总规模为$183M-$205M（Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence，2024年） - 6英寸（150mm）细分市场TAM：$65M - 预计2032年InP总TAM：$580M-$700M 现在看激光级磷化铟原料的TAM： - 多晶InP原料TAM：约$3亿 - 高纯度铟（6N/7N）仅：约$4亿衬底数据：Mordor Intelligence（InP晶圆市场2025-2030）和Straits Research。原料数据：Market Report Analytics（磷化铟多晶行业分析2025）。这是一种极其便宜的电信产品，现在成为整个供应链中最珍贵的材料之一。价格上涨3000%只会占$GOOGL TPU部署或$MSFT MAIA部署BOM值的低个位数。而仅微软2027年的扩产就会占用全部InP产能的两位数百分比。就像2022年的英特尔或半导体行业一样，超大规模云商可能会像当时囤积氖气一样，直接购买InP衬底+InP作为"保险"。如果"TAM"实际上只有几亿美元，但每个超大规模云商如果不确保这种材料就会面临部署延迟，那么这就变成了一场博弈论竞标战。在一个因$100衬底而停滞的价值$200亿的TPU部署中，超大规模云商会毫不犹豫地支付$10,000（比当前价格高出100倍）。这就是为什么当你看到InP衬底公司有$5000万订单积压（来自2024年），同样的$5000万产能对未来来说在极端情况下可能价值$5亿、$50亿甚至更多。这是一个"尾部风险"投资，如果超大规模云商被这种材料卡住，回报是极高的，但并非没有重大的地缘政治风险和稀释。我不知道会发生什么，但我预计2026年InP衬底和InP原料都会出现巨大瓶颈。那么，如果像$AXTI这样的公司拥有整个InP供应链40%的份额（来源：AXT CEO），而估值只有$7亿，你会给它什么估值？

英文原文

When I made my WSB post, I'm half joking about $AXTI. But not about the extreme bottleneck and InP supply shock. This is a call on critical materials game theory. If we see many historically at bottlenecks: 1. Dysprosium: ~2,300% increase (~$100/kg -> $2400/kg 2010-11) 2. Neon Gas: ~1000%-2,000% increase (2022) 3. Rhodium: ~$3,000/oz -> ~$29,000/oz (~860%) The current Indium spike compared to others? 89% : (~$440 / kg -> ~$832 / kg). Critical materials used for semiconductors like Neon Gas (semi-grade lithography lasers), spiked over 2000% because chipmakers like Intel and Samsung had stockpiled during Ukraine conflicts. They absorbed the cost because neon is a small fraction of the chip's value. Like Neon, InP is a critical "enabler" material. The cost of the wafer is small relative to the cost of the AI cluster ($100 wafer vs $30,000 GPU). Hyperscalers would happily absorb huge price increases rather than delay deployment. We haven't seen that yet with InP, but we likely will. Traditional analysts and many AI Models do not understand how to model critical bottlenecks because there's not many examples in history where an extremely cheap commodity like InP with few hundred million TAM suddenly became the most critical material for the multi-trillion+ AI buildout. Currently, hyperscalers likely placed backlogs on downstream providers Coherent / $LITE, but likely didn't realize that laser production and capacity are backlogged because of materials shortage upstream. There is a supply storage both for InP substrates ( $AXTI + Sumitomo + JX production) as well as the Indium Phosphide feedstock ( $AXTI, Vital, $DOWA) where demand exceeds supply by multiple factors. $NVDA originally contributed to the supply shortage by locking in a large percent of capacity of EML. But shortage is already pre-hyperscaler ramp, where majority of the demand will come in late 2026 into 2027 when Trainium or Maia show up. But how do you get around original chokepoint and securing your AI deployment? Buying out substrate capacity directly from ( $AXTI, Sumitomo) or going one step lower and buying InP feedstock and passing them to substrate producers so Google's TPU program doesn't stall. And similar to how other critical materials were needed for lithography lasers. Indium Phopshide and InP substates are even more critical to the entire AI buildout: 1. Nvidia: InfiniBand / NVLink (optical - 800G/1.6T EML Transceivers) - Extreme dependency on InP 2. Google: Jupiter / Apollo (optical - OCS), Extreme dependency 3. Microsoft: Azure Maia: High (800G DR4/FR4) 4. Meta: F16 / Artemis (800G) High and this is not considering other Mag7 companies like $AMZN or other companies scaling out ASICs with photonics. Currently, analysts are modeling InP companies based on TAM. For example, the total InP Wafer Market from 2024 is $183M – $205M Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence (2024) - 6-inch (150mm) Segment TAM: $65m - Projected Total InP TAM (2032): $580M – $700M Now looking at TAM for Laser-Grade Indium Phosphide Feedstock: - Polycrystalline InP Feedstock TAM: ~$300 Million - High-Purity Indium (6N/7N) Only: ~$400 Million Substrate Data: Mordor Intelligence (InP Wafer Market 2025-2030) and Straits Research. Feedstock Data: Market Report Analytics (Indium Phosphide Polycrystalline Industry Analysis 2025). This was an extremely cheap telecom product and now it's one of the most precious materials in the entire supply chain. Increasing prices 3000% would only be low single digits of BOM value to $GOOGL TPU deployments or $MSFT MAIA deployments. And the project Microsoft ramp in 2027 alone would take up double digits of all InP capacity. Like Intel or semis back in 2022, hyperscalers will likely buy insurance directly with InP substrates + InP, similar to how semis stockpiled Neon Gas. If the "TAM" really was a few hundred million, but every single hyperscaler would face deployment delays if they don't secure this material. Then this becomes a game theory bidding war. In a $20B TPU deployment is stalled because of a $100 substrate, a hyperscaler would easily pay $10,000 (100 times current prices) for it without hesitation. That's why when you look at InP substrate companies and see $50m backlog (from 2024), that same $50m worth of capacity for future ones could be valued at $500m, $5B or more in an extreme scenario. This is a "tail-risk" investment, extremely reward if hyperscalers get bottlenecked by this material, but not without significant geopolitical risk and dilution. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock. So, if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it?

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