杂谈
日常、致谢与其他 · 共 1566 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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博主调侃拟效仿投行风格，以幽默标题撰写住友电工分析
@jukan05 我应该效仿摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)，将下一篇关于住友电工(Sumitomo)的帖子标题定为“日本温泉之旅”——我的关键心得
英文原文
@jukan05 I should copy Morgan Stanley and word my next post about Sumitomo “Japan Hot Springs Trip” - My Key Takeaway
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博主请求AI助手回答问题
@illyquid @grok 回答这个问题
英文原文
@illyquid @grok answer this question
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特朗普言论加速局势，本土作战优势或避免重蹈伊拉克覆辙。
当我最初评论预计若动员部队具有敌意将导致3-18个月的延迟时，我也是这么想的。当时我更关注国防/军工承包商。 然而，鉴于特朗普对该局势的评论，情况似乎比预期发展得更快。由于这是在本土作战，且拥有现代化军事装备+情报支持，因此可能不会重蹈伊拉克战争的覆辙。
英文原文
I was thinking the same way when I made my original comments on expecting 3-18m delay if mobilized troops are hostile. And was focused more on defense/military contractors. However given trump’s comments about the situation, it looks like things are moving faster than expected and this is on home turf w/ modern military equipment + intelligence so it probably won’t be a repeat of Iraq
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博主调侃若为地缘政治套利牺牲道德，则对收益预期极高。
@crux_capital_ 如果我为了从美国对委内瑞拉的敌意收购中获利而牺牲我的道德，我对投资组合的期望值很高。
英文原文
@crux_capital_ If I'm sacrificing my morals to profit off the US hostile takeover of Venezuela, I have high expectations for the portfolio.
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感谢认可，并称赞对委内瑞拉疑似持有比特币储备的总结。
@BitcoinArchive 感谢认可！这在如今相当罕见。 关于委内瑞拉疑似持有比特币储备的现状，总结得很棒。
英文原文
@BitcoinArchive Appreciate the credit! Quite rare nowadays. Great summary of the situation on hand regarding Venezuela’s speculated Bitcoin reserves.
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回复指出在等权重配置下ONDS与RKLB地位相同。
@blu400_ 等权重配置。所以 $ONDS 和 $RKLB 是一样的。
英文原文
@blu400_ Equal weightings. So $ONDS and $RKLB are the same.
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认为市场低估了美国没收委内瑞拉比特币事件的影响。
@meaculpaK9 @martypartymusic 我认为你们低估了“枪口下的证明”(Proof of Gunpoint) 对美国当局没收委内瑞拉比特币这一事件的影响。
英文原文
@meaculpaK9 @martypartymusic I think you understimate Proof of Gunpoint on the effect of Venezuela’s Bitcoin confiscation by US authorities.
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美国释放委内瑞拉约60万枚比特币。
@dgt10011 美国只是让委内瑞拉的约60万枚比特币(Bitcoin)尝到了自由的滋味。
英文原文
@dgt10011 America is just giving Venezuela’s ~600K Bitcoins a taste of freedom
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博主回应批评，表示会改进措辞并感谢评论区。
@QuantumRapist 抱歉，如果可以的话我会回去修改措辞和来源。下次我会做得更好。 很高兴有评论区让我可以解释。
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@QuantumRapist My bad, I would go back and edit the wording + sources if I could. I'll do better next time. Glad there's a comment section where I can explain though.
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解析委内瑞拉政权疑似持有60万枚BTC的来源及估值逻辑
如果有人好奇这 60 万枚 BTC 数据的来源： 1) 威尔逊中心(Wilson Center)和路透社(Reuters)估计，马杜罗政权在 2018 年清算了约 73 吨黄金，价值约 27 亿美元。 2) 拥有 HUMINT（人力情报）来源的 Whale Hunting 评估认为，这笔资金立即被转换为比特币以规避美国财政部冻结，当时可能形成了约 40 万枚 BTC 的“影子储备”。 3) 原油销售等其他事件也增加了这一储备。 由于委内瑞拉一直在积极规避制裁，且无法通过链上分析确认，具体数量未知。但估计该储备量在此水平，这也是可能被没收的资产潜在规模。 当时比特币价格约为 3000 美元至 10000 美元，大部分数值增长来自比特币随时间的价格升值。
英文原文
If people were curious about sources for this 600K BTC figure: 1) Wilson Center and Reuters est. Maduro regime liquidated ~73 tons in gold in 2018 for ~$2.7 billion. 2) Whale Hunting with HUMINT sources assess that this capital was immediately converted into Bitcoin to avoid US Treasury freezes, potentially creating a "shadow reserve" of ~400,000 BTC at that point in time. 3) There's been other events from Crude Oil sales that added to this stockpile The number is unknown as Venezuela has been actively avoiding sanctions and this is unable to be confirmed through chain analysis. However, there's estimates that the pile sits around this figure and this is the potential amount of assets to be seized. This was back when Bitcoin was roughly $3k-$10k and most of the figures come from Bitcoin price appreciation over time.
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推测委内瑞拉2018年售金转购40万枚BTC以避制裁。
1) 威尔逊中心(Wilson Center)和路透社(Reuters)报道，马杜罗政权在2018年通过土耳其和阿联酋的中间人绕过传统银行制裁，清算了约73吨黄金，价值约27亿美元。 情报机构（如Whale Hunting）结合人力情报(HUMINT)来源评估，这笔资金立即被转换为比特币(Bitcoin)以避免美国财政部冻结，当时可能形成了约40万枚BTC的“影子储备”。 当时比特币价格约为3000-10000美元，大部分价值增长来自比特币随时间的价格升值。 再次强调，这属于推测，因为委内瑞拉政府当时正积极规避制裁，因此真实数字无法确知。
英文原文
1) Wilson Center and Reuters reported that the Maduro regime liquidated ~73 tons of gold in 2018 for ~$2.7 billion, utilizing intermediaries in Turkey and the UAE to bypass traditional banking sanctions. Intelligence (eg. Whale Hunting), with HUMINT sources assess that this capital was immediately converted into Bitcoin to avoid US Treasury freezes, potentially creating a "shadow reserve" of ~400,000 BTC at that point in time. This was back when Bitcoin was roughly $3k-$10k and most of the figures come from Bitcoin price appreciation over time. Once again this is speculation as the Venezuelan government was actively avoiding sanctions so true figure would not be known.
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Alex Saab或掌握委内瑞拉比特币密钥，美政府或可没收。
报道称，Alex Saab 据称知道如何访问这笔比特币资产，因为他构建了在制裁下维持政权运转的架构。然而，由于发生了一次囚犯交换，他得以逃脱美国监管。我确信这涉及多重签名(Multi-sig)及更安全的方案，但鉴于胁迫因素，美国政府很可能能没收大量持仓。
英文原文
Reports are saying Alex Saab allegedly knows how to access this Bitcoin pile since he built the architecture that kept the regime alive under sanctions. However, there was a prisoner swap, so he was able to escape US custody. Pretty sure it's multi-sig + more secure scheme, but given coercion, it's likely the United States government can confiscate a lot of holdings.
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推测委内瑞拉政权将黄金变现后购入比特币作为影子储备。
当然，该网站依赖官方数据。马杜罗政权的持仓隐藏在复杂的洗钱网络中，因此数据不公开。 关于上述推测的佐证来源： 威尔逊中心《委内瑞拉的专制盟友》：2018年委内瑞拉超过40%的黄金储备（73吨）被抛售。 Grey Dynamics：一家情报公司报告称，2018年阿联酋公司Noor Capital、土耳其公司“Sardes Kiymetli Madenler A.S.”等之间出售了73.2吨黄金。 路透社/Argus Media：2019年广泛报道了约23.6吨黄金运往土耳其以及分别运往阿联酋的情况。 Entry Capital：27亿美元（经核实的2018年黄金出售价值）。2018年比特币交易价格在3,200至10,000美元之间，这可能相当于约40万枚BTC。 理论是，如果政权将资金保留为美元或欧元，会被制裁冻结。比特币是当时唯一流动性足够大且美国财政部无法“冻结”的资产类别。近期报告（如来自Whale Hunting）引用人力情报来源称，政权利用中间商将黄金收益转换为比特币以绕过银行系统。 “600亿美元”是持有该资产8年的数学结果，因此被推测为其影子储备。但再次强调，请将其视为推测。
英文原文
Sure, so this website relies on official data. Maduro regime's holdings were concealed in a complex laundering network, so the numbers are not public. Regarding corroborating sources for the speculation above: The Wilson Center "Venezuela's Authoritarian Allies" - More than 40 percent of Venezuela's gold reserves (73 tons) were sold off in 2018. Grey Dynamics: An intelligence firm reported that 73.2 tons of gold were sold between Emirati company Noor capial, Turkish firm "Sardes Kiymetli Madenler A.S.", and others in 2018. Reuters/Argus Media: Reported extensively in 2019 on the shipment of ~23.6 tons to Turkey and separate shipments to the UAE. Entry Capital: $2.7 Billion (The verified 2018 gold sale value). In 2018, Bitcoin traded between $3,200 and $10,000, which could be around 400,000 BTC. The theory is that if the regime had kept the money in US dollars or Euros, it would have been frozen by sanctions. Bitcoin was the only asset class liquid enough to hold billions that was "unfreezable" by the US Treasury at that time. Recent reports (e.g., from Whale Hunting) cite human intelligence sources claimed the regime used intermediaries to convert gold proceeds into Bitcoin during the time to bypass the banking system. The "$60 billion" is the mathematical result of holding that asset for 8 years, hence why it's speculated to be their shadow reserve. But again treat this is as speculation.
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澄清委内瑞拉比特币持仓600亿美元仅为基于历史数据的推测。
我在原帖中的措辞过于强硬。这纯属推测。如帖中所述，消息来源是《华尔街日报》撰稿人Bradley Hope以及Whale Hunting通讯的Clara Preve。 “600亿美元”这一数字是基于数学推算：假设在2018-2019年比特币交易价格在3,000至10,000美元期间持有初始约27亿美元的仓位，并随着比特币在当前周期中升值至10万美元以上。 由于委内瑞拉一直在积极规避制裁，该数字无法通过链上分析确认，因此确切数值未知。然而，这个数字有可能高达此水平。
英文原文
I worded this way too strongly in the original post. This is speculation. As mentioned in the post, source was from WSJ contributer Bradley Hope, Clara Preve from the Whale Hunting newsletter. The "$60 billion" figure is a mathematical projection based on holding the initial ~$2.7 billion stake during 2018–2019, when Bitcoin traded between $3,000 and $10,000. through Bitcoin's appreciation to prices above $100,000 in the current cycle. The number is unknown as Venezuela has been actively avoiding sanctions and this is unable to be confirmed through chain analysis. However, there's a possibility that the number can go as high as this figure.
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委内瑞拉局势利好油价及比特币，因可能压低油价并锁定大量BTC供应。
@JamesWynnReal 政权更迭+比特币没收后的时机并非最糟。此外，据一些计算，委内瑞拉有望通过压低油价为美国GDP增长做出相当贡献，这对市场和比特币都是利好。
英文原文
@JamesWynnReal not the worst timing post regime change + bitcoin seizure. also venezuela is est. to add a decent amount GDP growth to US from some calculations bc it pushes oil prices down, which is bullish markets + bitcoin. https://t.co/4Ib72DSIKK
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采纳建议，将OI从列表中移除。
@KingofBears7 你说得对，谢谢，那就把 $OI 从名单中移除。
英文原文
@KingofBears7 Ur right thanks, remove $OI from the list then
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询问其他博主确认某信息的真实性
@KingofBears7 @grok 你能确认这是真的吗
英文原文
@KingofBears7 @grok can you confirm if this is true
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博主感谢粉丝关注，表示乐于分享并帮助他人。
@__visionxry__ 谢谢！很高兴大家觉得我的帖子有趣，毕竟我几个月前才加入。感谢你们从一开始就关注。粉丝数量只是我喜欢分享的内容的副产品，很高兴能有机会帮助更多人。
英文原文
@__visionxry__ Thanks! I’m glad people found my posts interesting since I joined a few months ago. Thanks for following along near the start. Follower count is just a byproduct of stuff I like to share and glad I can have the chance to help more people
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欢迎博主回归，肯定社区早期洞察并期待后续。
@romanchernin 欢迎回来！很高兴 $NBIS 社区早早地指出了这一点。期待未来的发展。
英文原文
@romanchernin Welcome back! Glad the $NBIS community called it out early. Looking forward to future developments
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博主自述拥有金融记忆天赋但牺牲生活记忆，虽遗憾却助益市场分析。
我只是一个人。不幸的是，我有一种障碍，能记住任何与金融相关的随机事实，甚至是多年前像 $HOOD 这样的随机盈利波动事件。 代价是，我往往无法回忆起现实生活中与朋友或家人一起做过的事情。 这是一个相当可悲的权衡，但在市场分析和综合研判方面帮助很大。
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I'm 1 person. Unfortunately, I have a disorder where I can memorize any random fact related to financials, even to random earning volatility events like $HOOD from years ago. The tradeoff is I can't recall things in real life, from things I did with friends or family a lot of times. It's a pretty sad tradeoff, but helps a lot with markets and synthesis.
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博主感谢粉丝引用导致原帖爆火
@beauty_oe 元投稿竟然火了，太惊讶了！起因是你的引用，所以特来致谢分享 🙇♂️
英文原文
@beauty_oe 元投稿がバズってびっくり！きっかけはあなたの引用だったので、シェアのお礼を言いに来ました 🙇♂️
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博主解释为何转而分析 Papa John's 受委内瑞拉政变影响。
@Whopzbet 抱歉，我最终写了为什么 Papa John's Pizza 是委内瑞拉政权更迭的主要受益者。https://t.co/ww52FFg5zc
英文原文
@Whopzbet Sorry, I ended up writing why Papa John’s Pizza was the main beneficary of the Venezuela regime change instead. https://t.co/ww52FFg5zc
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博主在大阪吃拉面时发帖，感谢粉丝的暖心支持。
@tacthase @beauty_oe 正在大阪一边吃拉面一边发帖w 感谢你们的暖心话语！ https://t.co/pBPE2omfBo
英文原文
@tacthase @beauty_oe 大阪でラーメン食べながら投稿中w 優しい言葉感謝！ https://t.co/pBPE2omfBo
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调侃政权更迭速度之快，远超预期。
@VG3024 确实，$KRKNF 是我的最爱之一。不过我原本预期冲突会持续较久，这20分钟就完成的政权更迭比我洗澡还快。
英文原文
@VG3024 True $KRKNF is one of my favorites. I was expecting a prolonged conflict though, the 20 min regime change was faster than my shower.
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博主幽默回应粉丝的过度夸奖。
@beauty_oe 笑 别夸得太过了！
英文原文
@beauty_oe 笑 そんなに褒めすぎだよ！
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博主以超大规模云服务商身份幽默调侃持有DPZ股票
@Colby17201470 除了与 $AXTI 相关的磷化铟(InP)衬底，作为一名超大规模云服务商(hyperscaler)，我一直在订购多米诺披萨(Dominoes Pizza)的上游材料。我们应该会看到我的订单对 2025 年第四季度(Q4 2025)的业绩产生实质性影响，这也是为什么我对未来在 $DPZ 上的持仓充满信心 https://t.co/GXEIhjKE5v
英文原文
@Colby17201470 Parallel to InP substrates with $AXTI, I've been ordering the upstream materials for Dominoes Pizza since I myself am a hyperscaler. We should see my orders materially impact Q4 2025 results, which is why I'm confident in my future positions in $DPZ https://t.co/GXEIhjKE5v
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博主高度赞扬某帖子的投资洞察力
@jukan05 这可能是我一生中读过的最具超额收益(Alpha)价值的帖子
英文原文
@jukan05 This is probably the most alpha post I’ve read in my life
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ETH销毁量激增利好网络效用，但可能利空代币价格。
@matthew_sigel 是的，但以太坊(ETH)的销毁量已从去年的每天几千枚稳定增长至每天6000万枚。我认为这对网络采用率/实用性是好事，但对代币价格来说可能不太妙。 https://t.co/5Db1DCNJkk
英文原文
@matthew_sigel Yeah but the amount of ETH burn is a solid 6 Ethereum a day from a few thousand last year. Great for network adoption/utility, imo kinda bad for token prices. https://t.co/5Db1DCNJkk
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推测SMCI，并调侃Figma散户税务亏损收割数据
@odiimichael1 呃，可能是 $SMCI。但从散户数据来看，Figma（$FIG）的税务亏损收割（Tax Loss Harvesting）情况看起来很好笑 https://t.co/xaGvHpBi8m
英文原文
@odiimichael1 Uhh probably $SMCI. But Figma’s ( $FIG ) tax harvesting situation looks hilarious from retail data https://t.co/xaGvHpBi8m
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博主新年祝福，期待税务操作后市场动向及继续图表分析。
@soulbiri1 新年快乐！税务亏损收割(Tax harvesting)应该已经完成了，所以我很期待看到哪些股票会率先启动。让我们继续新一年的动漫风格图表分析(anime charting)吧。
英文原文
@soulbiri1 Happy new year! Tax harvesting should be done so I’m excited to see what stocks ends up moving first. Here’s to another year of anime charting