· 供应链分析

澄清AVGO推迟CPO利好传统光模块,市场误读导致板块错杀。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

整个市场都误解了 $AVGO 首席执行官关于共封装光学(CPO)的言论。 这导致今天光子学板块从 $LITE 到 $COHR 在早盘出现抛售。 市场往往根据头条新闻进行交易,却忽略了所有细微差别。 CPO 是光子学技术的一种演进。 这种延迟对某些光子学参与者如 $AAOI 来说极其利好。 虽然对 Soitec 等 CPO 公司而言总体是负面的。 市场和人们将 CPO 与整个光子学板块混为一谈。 Tan 基本上只是给传统光收发器制造商的产品生命周期带来了巨大的延长。 原话如下: “我想说的是,你不需要去追逐那些被称为 CPO 的闪亮新事物,即使我们是 CPO 的领导者。CPO 会在适当的时候到来,不是今年,也许也不是明年,但会在它该来的时候到来。” 事实上,$GOOGL 拒绝 CPO 且 $AVGO 将 CPO 时间线预测推迟数年: 这可能是对许多光子学公司(如开盘下跌 8% 后翻红的 $AAOI(光收发器))来说最棒的事情。 机架内部,超大规模数据中心仍可使用铜缆。但对于更长距离,使用的是可插拔光收发器(现在其生命周期延长了数年)。 个股往往被一起抛售,但最大的赚钱机会在于理解大家忽略的细微差别。

英文原文

The entire market misunderstood $AVGO CEO’s comments around CPO. This caused a selloff today on the photonics sector from $LITE to $COHR in the morning. Markets trade off headline news but miss all the nuances. CPO is an evolution to photonics. This delay is extremely bullish to certain photonics players like $AAOI. While net negative to CPO companies like Soitec. Markets and people conflated CPO with the photonics sector as a whole. Tan basically just gave traditional transceiver makers a massive extension on their product lifecycle. The exact quote: "What all I'm trying to say is you don't need to go run into some bright shiny objects called CPO, even as we are the lead in CPOs. CPOs will come in its time, not this year, maybe not next year, but in its time." In fact, $GOOGL rejecting CPO and $AVGO delaying CPO timeline projections by years: Is probably the most greatest thing that can happen to many photonics companies like $AAOI (optical transceivers) that dropped 8% on open then recovered to green. Inside the rack, hyperscalers can still use copper. But for longer distances, pluggable optical transceivers are used (and now get a life extension by years). Names get sold off all together, but where the most money to be made is understanding the nuances everyone misses.

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