2025-11-30 · 供应链分析

分析NBIS、IREN和CRWV商业模式优劣及新云厂商时间窗口。

中文翻译

好问题。麦肯锡曾就此话题发文（我觉得写得极差，因为他们以 $CRWV 为主要锚点）。但其中部分观点成立，并对 $IREN 等公司发出警示。他们的观点： - 当前的裸金属租赁商业模式薄弱且脆弱 - 避免过度依赖少数大客户 - 开辟可防御的利基市场（如主权计算、专用工作负载） - 通过收购整合或成为超大规模云服务商这些确实正确，但未能捕捉到一些细微差别。关于 $NBIS： - 极度多元化（这构成了利用率的强大护城河，对利润率计算至关重要） - 全栈式（可防御的利基市场） - 通过收购整合（旨在成为超大规模云服务商，拥有4家同步增长的子公司）这就是我说它具有最高非对称上行潜力的原因。关于 $IREN： - 当前的裸金属租赁业务目前是护城河。文章指出长期来看它很脆弱，这是正确的。因此 $IREN 正通过与 $MSFT 合作开展 GPU 基础设施即服务(IaaS) 向上攀登全栈阶梯，并可能尝试构建上层软件层（尽管这很难） - 我们将拭目以待，这需要极高的执行力。关于 $CRWV - 老实说，我不知道他们如何摆脱债务陷阱 - 他们试图用 $NVDA 作为后盾，但这充其量也很脆弱（例如 OpenAI 拥有 1 万亿美元以上的资本支出，试图争取政府 + 科技七巨头提供资金担保）新云厂商是一场与时间的赛跑，我同意文章的观点（这就是我说高确信度持有2年，而非5年以上的原因）。他们拥有从科技七巨头(Mag7)弱势中获取收入的绝佳窗口期 -> 将收入转化 -> 建立长期差异化和护城河。我不知道最终结果如何，但我们将拭目以待。

英文原文

Hi great question. So there was an article by Mckinsey on this topic (which I think is terribly written since they use $CRWV as the main anchor). But some points holds true, and gives warnings to $IREN and others. Their claims: - current bare-metal rental business model is weak and fragile - avoids overreliance on a few giant customers - carve defensible niches (sovereign compute, specialized workloads) - consolidate through acquisitions or be a hyperscaler Are definitely correct, but fail to capture some nuances. So for $NBIS: - Extremely diversified (so this is more as a powerful moat for utilization, which is huge for margin calculations) - Full-stack (defensible niche) - consolidate through acquisitions (it's aiming to become a hyperscaler, has 4 subsidiary companies growing alongside it) That's kind of why I've said it has the highest asymmetrical upside of the bunch. For $IREN: - current bare-metal rental business is a moat as of today. The article is correct in stating long term it's fragile. That's why $IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top (though it's hard) - We will see what comes out of this, it's high execution. For $CRWV - idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh - they're using $NVDA to backstop it, but it's shaky at best (eg. openai with $1t+ in capex trying to get gov + mag7 to backstop funding) Neoclouds are a race against time, I agree with the article (which is why I said 2 year high conviction hold, not 5 years + ). They have this brilliant window of opportunity of weakness from mag7 -> funnel revenue down -> build long term differentiation and moats. I don't know what will happen, but we'll see

在 X 上查看原推 ↗