个股论点
围绕单一股票的投资逻辑与仓位表态 · 共 2504 条 · 滚到底自动加载更多
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点评 TSSI、BKKT 及 Moonshot 的市值与前景。
TSSI 在市值约 2 亿美元时确实令人惊叹。 BKKT 2025 年第一季度的净营业亏损为 -1900 万美元，但比特币升值加上成本削减应该能帮他们一把，毕竟他们只有 2 亿美元的小市值。 Moonshot 要么市值达到 25 亿美元（从当前水平涨 10 倍），要么破产。
英文原文
TSSI is quite amazing back when they were $200m or so. BKKT has -19M net operating income loss for Q1 2025 but Bitcoin appreciation + cost cutting should help them out a bit with their small $200m market cap. Moonshot is a 2.5B market cap (10x from here) or bankruptcy.
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分享持有的微盘股及BKKT做空与加密行情逻辑
不能在WSB讨论微盘股，但如果你好奇： 我持有的只有三只：$BKKT（$12）、$TSSI（$8）、$BKSY（$11）。 对于BKKT，超过21%的公司股份被做空，且加密货币公司表现良好。我不建议追高，但持有少量仓位也不算最糟。https://t.co/yIzRzMAMD9
英文原文
Can't talk about microcaps on WSB, but if you're curious: Only three I've owned are $BKKT ($12), $TSSI ($8), $BKSY ($11). For BKKT, 21%+ of the company is sold short and crypto companies are doing well. I don't recommend chasing but not the worst to have small positions. https://t.co/yIzRzMAMD9
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回顾BULL因权证稀释导致股价崩盘的套利案例
当我之前做套利时，很明显一旦认股权证可以被赎回，$BULL 就会从 70 美元崩盘。然而，尽管相对于实际股价，10 美元行权价（每张 4.00 美元）的认股权证被严重错配，人们仍然盲目地在 30 美元以上买入该股票。简而言之：稀释会导致股价崩盘！
英文原文
When I was doing arbitrage earlier, it was clear $BULL was going to crash from $70 once warrants could be redeemed. Yet people blindly still bought the stock at $30+ after $10 strikes ($4.00 each) were so mispriced relative to the actual stock. TLDR: dilution crashes stocks!
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提醒关注新 IPO 稀释效应及 BULL、CRCL 禁售期影响。
人们不断私信我询问新 IPO。建议：如果你做空或做多，请密切关注稀释效应。$BULL 估值尚可，但人们需要关注活跃的禁售期。$CRCL 也有 180 天的禁售期，人们正在交易有限的流通盘，这就是它拥有 400 亿市值的原因。
英文原文
People keep DMing me about new IPOs. Advice: PAY ATTENTION to dilution if you're short/long. $BULL is okay valued but there's active lockups people need to follow. $CRCL has a 180 day lockup as well, people are trading with limited floats, which is why it has a 40B MC. https://t.co/3pjeQeTJ85
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作者买入少量，警示股价可能大幅回调，不建议全仓抄底。
披露：如果你们想跟随操作，我买入了一小部分。但它完全有可能像 UNH 从 $375 -> $320 -> $250 那样回落到 $13 附近再恢复，这就是为什么我从不建议在这种回调时全仓（full porting）买入。
英文原文
Disclosure: I bought a small amount if you ever want to follow along. But it's always possible for it to drop back to $13 similar to UNH $375 -> $320 -> $250 before recovering, which is why I never recommend full porting on dips like these.
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建议 $OSCR 暴跌后分批建仓以摊低成本。
很难精准抄底，所以如果你在我 Reddit 深度研究(DD)后，从 $14 买入并在 $22 卖出 $OSCR 后打算重新入场： 在今天暴跌 18.75% 后买入约 30% 的仓位是个不错的想法，这样可以将成本平均摊低到低位，例如 ($11.6)。https://t.co/8nh9TLD1Yq
英文原文
It's hard to time the exact bottom so if you're re-entering stocks like $OSCR after selling at $22 from $14 after my Reddit DD: Decent idea to buy say 30% of your position after today's 18.75% drop, then have cost averages down to the low, such as ($11.6). https://t.co/8nh9TLD1Yq
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利用 Polymarket 概率，通过杠杆和备兑看涨期权交易比特币。
Polymarket 也定价了比特币今年达到 12 万美元的 76% 概率，所以即使比特币在几个月后仅上涨 10%，你通过杠杆 + 备兑看涨期权(covered calls) 仍然能赚很多。7 月/8 月通常是 9 月疲软前买入的最佳时机，然后在 11 月/12 月重新买入。
英文原文
Polymarket also is pricing in 76% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120k this year, so even if Bitcoin only goes up 10% after a few months you still make a lot from leverage + covered calls. July/August is usually the best time to buy before Sept weakness then rebuy Nov/Dec.
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看好BTC长期期权潜力，建议高波动时卖出看涨期权获利。
说真的，$IBIT $BTC 2026-2027 年的长期期权(LEAPS)拥有巨大的上涨潜力。隐含波动率(IV)极低（44-55），新法案使美元通胀10-11%，全球货币供应量增加，历史上减半后一年期的7/8月往往会出现大幅上涨。与此同时，在每周高隐含波动率时卖出比特币看涨期权(CCs) = 即使有时间价值损耗(theta)也能获利。
英文原文
Seriously though $IBIT $BTC 2026-2027 Leaps have huge upside Very low IV (44-55), new bills inflated USD by 10-11%, global monetary supply increasing, historical rallies Jul/August one year after halving. Meanwhile, selling BTC CCs into weekly high IV = profit despite theta
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$ETORO 利润三成来自加密，低位或有补涨潜力。
鉴于 $ETORO 是一只新上市股票，它可能尚未像（比特币 -> $MSTR -> $COIN -> $MARA 等）那样与加密货币紧密关联。然而，$ETORO 37% 的利润来自加密货币，且目前处于低位，因此可能像其股价从 $61 飙升至 $76 的那天一样，有补涨空间。
英文原文
Given how ETORO is a new stock, it's likely not associated with Crypto yet like how (Bitcoin -> $MSTR -> $COIN -> $MARA, etc). However, 37% of $ETORO's profits come from Crypto and it's at a low so might have some room to catch up like the day they spiked $61 -> $76
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建议 $63.1 加仓 $ETORO，因其相对同行存在补涨空间。
如果感兴趣，我也会分享一些随想。 $ETORO 在 $63.1 是一个很好的加仓点。像 $HOOD 和 $BULL 这样的加密经纪商都上涨了 8-10%+，而 ETORO 却下跌了 1.25%。 通常相关板块会有相似的走势，这更多是一种补涨行为。
英文原文
I'll also post random thoughts too if people are interested. $ETORO is a great add at $63.1, crypto brokerages like $HOOD and $BULL are both up 8-10%+ while ETORO is down 1.25%. Usually related sectors have similar movements, it's more of playing catch-up
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博主基于技术分析看好Upwork突破17美元并建仓。
因此，我认为 Upwork 将突破 $17+，并买入了一定数量。这对于任何像我这样拥有博士学位的人来说，图表的技术分析(TA)都完全展示了这一点。
英文原文
For that reason I believe Upwork will breakout $17+ and bought a decent amount. This is fully shown in the TA of the chart for anyone with a PHD such as myself.
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暗示$NARU/$UPWK即将迎来重大利好转折。
这意味着，$NARU/$UPWK 在接下来的几周和几个月里即将拥有严重的“剧情护甲”(Plot Armor)。 你知道接下来会发生什么。鸣人遇见纲手。动画里没演，但有一个弹跳式的登场和查克拉按摩。鸣人的故事迎来了大团圆结局。
英文原文
Which means, Naruto/UPWK is about to have some serious plot armor in the upcoming weeks and months. You know what comes next. Naruto meets Tsunade. They didn't show this in the show but there's a bouncy entrance and the Chakara Massage. There's a happy ending to Naruto.
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UPWK暴跌后图表形态暗示反弹在即，类比火影忍者剧情。
所以，就像往常一样，在‘木叶村’被毁后，$UPWK 需要进行重建。一根巨大的暴跌K线（dump candle）如同‘佩恩’本人般袭来。但他们没看到的是……图表正需要这一跌。‘鸣人’已登场。你可以看到他的发际线正在图表中形成。
英文原文
So as usual with the destruction of the hidden leaf village, UPWK had some rebuilding to do. A massive dump candle hits like Pain himself. But what they don’t see… is that the chart needed this. Naruto HAS ARRIVED. You can see his hairline being formed in the chart.
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博主基于九尾狐技术形态买入15万美元UPWK。
为什么我购买了价值15万美元的$UPWK。 这是UPWORK（$UPWK）以及我购买15万美元以上股份的原因解释。 起初，你看到的看起来像一只猫(CAT)。它从两只耳朵开始。看起来像猫对吧？ 错了。这是九尾狐(NINE TAILED FOX)形态，不仅仅是任何一只猫。 https://t.co/BUYY3BncTs
英文原文
Why I bought $150k in $UPWK. Here is UPWORK, UPWK and my explanation on why I bought $150k+ in shares. At first, you see what looks like a CAT. It starts off with the two ears. Looks like a cat right? Wrong. This is the NINE TAILED FOX Pattern, not just any cat. https://t.co/BUYY3BncTs