· 个股论点

分析NBIS融资优势及高利润率,认为其抗风险能力强于同行。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

当然,我从产能融资的角度将 $NBIS 列为 S 级,因为它不受影响其他数据中心(DC)股票(如被迫发行垃圾债的 $APLD)的信贷紧缩影响。 从第三季度财报来看,$CRWV 面临 12.1 亿至 12.5 亿美元的利息支出,而现金等价物仅为 19.4 亿美元。 其他新云(neocloud)板块股票需要更多现金来资助建设并实现吉瓦(GW)产能变现,例如 $IREN,且将面临更高的利率或缺乏融资兴趣(如可转换债券)。 这大概就是板块抛售的原因,但部分抛售相对不合理(例如 $NBIS、$CIFR)。 对于 $NBIS,你可能关注的是其 25 亿美元的自动取款机(ATM)增发。凭借现有的 48 亿美元以上现金,他们足以支持全栈建设和产能变现,并可根据与 $META、$MSFT 的可见收入合同扩展未来产能。 但我个人对其 ATM 增发并不满意,因为这会增加成本影响股价,并抵消 11 月 24 日纳入 MSCI 指数带来的资金流入。 但 $NBIS 拥有 70-90 亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR),拥有行业最高利润率,鉴于其 200 亿美元市值,这足以抵消 10% 的稀释和可转换债券的影响。

英文原文

Sure, I put $NBIS as S tier from that capacity funding angle because it's isolated from credit tightening affecting other DC stocks like $APLD (that had to sell junk bonds). From Q3 earnings, $CRWV is facing $1.21-$1.25B in interest expenses and only has $1.94 billion in cash equivalents. Other neocloud sector stocks will need more to cash fund buildout + monetize GW capacity ike $IREN, and will face higher interest rates or lack of funding interest (eg. convertibles). This is kind of why we're seeing a sector selloff, but some were relatively undeserved (eg. $NBIS, $CIFR). With $NBIS you're probably looking at their $2.5B ATM offering. With their existing $4.8B+ in cash, they have enough for their full-stack buildout and capacity monetization + and can scale future capacity from visible revenue contracts with $META, $MSFT. But I'm personally not happy with their ATM, since it's an overhead affecting stock price + balances out inflows from MSCI inclusion in 2 days Nov 24th. But $NBIS with $7-9B ARR has the highest margins in the industry, which would offset 10% dilution and convertibles given their $20B marketcap.

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