· 供应链分析

基于财报与宏观因素,发布Neocloud板块个股梯队排名及评估框架。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

Neocloud(新云)板块梯队排名。 Q3财报后+市场板块回调: [S] 级:$NBIS [A] 级:$CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] 级:$GLXY, $CORZ [C] 级:$APLD, $CLSK [D] 级:$WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] 级:$CRWV*, $SLNH [U] 级:$GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** 从左到右依次排名。 *:短期价格下跌创造了诱人的入场点(例如 $CRWV),但中期(12个月)吸引力仍然有限。 **:不确定,决定不评级(但在梯队图中列为F级)。一些纯矿企尚未完全转型为HPC(高性能计算)+ 合同不确定性太大。 很多人询问财报后的更新,这些只是基于以下加权评估的个人想法: a. 合同可见性和收入确定性 b. 对宏观收紧和信贷条件的韧性 c. 资产负债表强度和利润率概况 d. HPC建设风险(产能执行和编排) e. 收入增长轨迹(1-2年视野) f. 当前市值相对于收入增长和基础设施价值的比率 整个Neocloud板块都很有吸引力,但截至Q3,某些公司的非对称回报显然高于其他公司。

英文原文

The Neocloud Sector Tierlist. Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop: [S] Tier: $NBIS [A] Tier: $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ [C] Tier: $APLD, $CLSK [D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH [U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** Ranked in order from left to right. * : Short-term pricing drops created compelling entries (e.g., $CRWV), but med-term (12m) attractiveness remains limited. **: Uncertain, decided not to rate them (but put them in tierlist photo as F). Some pure miners haven't fully pivot into HPC yet + too much contract uncertainty. Lot of people asked about updates post earnings, these are just personal thoughts based on weighted assessments of: a. Contract visibility and revenue certainty b. Resilience to macro tightening and credit conditions c. Balance sheet strength and margin profile d. HPC buildout risk (capacity execution and orchestration) e. Revenue growth trajectory (1–2 year horizon) f. Current market capitalization relative to revenue ramp and infrastructure value The whole Neocloud sector is compelling but some have clearly higher asymmetrical return over others as of Q3.

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