· 个股论点
$LITE（利盟特姆）基本上什么都做，CW/EML激光器、光学引擎等。我主要用CPO增长曲线来分析像$SIVE或MSSCorps这种没有前期业务基础的纯概念公司。对于利盟特姆，你需要看整体TAM（总可寻址市场），从150亿增长到1540亿美元，因为他们的目标市场很广泛，包括CPO。他们在2028年前基本上是满负荷订单状态，尤其是与$NVDA的合作，这是最大的指标。我不认为他们会达不到盈利预期。但“达标”基本上是预期内的，所以不知道短期会怎么走，很多取决于期权流向，基本是抛硬币。长期方向上，我认为仍然值得持有，短期怎么走就见仁见智了。
$LITE basically does everything, CW/EML lasers, optical engines, etc. I used CPO growth curves mainly for pure play names like $SIVE or MSSCorps that didn't have previous exposure. For Lumentum you want to look at overall TAM which was $15B -> $154B since they're kinda targeting most things, including CPO. They're basically fully booked through 2028, especially with $NVDA that's the biggest indicator. I don't see how they don't beat earning projections. But the "beat" is pretty much expected, so dunno which way it goes short term and a lot of it is option flow/coin flip. Directionally long term it's still a hold in my view, anyone's guess what happens short term.