2026-01-08 · 供应链分析

解析中国对日InP禁令细节及美日在关键材料谈判中的不同处境。

涉及标的： $AXTI $MSFT

中文翻译

这很微妙，但我尽力解释： 1) 这实际上是禁令，不仅仅是出口管制。这涉及任何与军事最终用户或军事用途相关的内容。对于住友电气(Sumitomo Electric)等主要国防承包商来说，这实际上就是禁令。还有“次级抵制”规则，直接影响住友/JX：例如，如果另一家公司购买磷化铟(InP)原料，然后试图将原料/成品收发器转让给日本公司，中国可能会禁止相关公司。这部分非常微妙。如果你想知道为什么美国在这些出口管制下没事，是因为美国允许英伟达(Nvidia)向中国出售H200芯片，作为交换，中国“解锁”了铟和镓等原材料对美国商业科技公司的供应。这是第72号公告，暂停了对美国民用客户“镓、锗和铟”最严格的“原则性禁令”，直到2026年11月27日。但隐含地，微软(MSFT)、Lite等被视为更偏向商业性质（即使它们不是，MSFT确实服务于美国政府），因为这是为了允许中国训练其AI模型而进行的交换。不幸的是，日本没有像美国这样的筹码。 2) 在2026年公告之前，磷化铟(InP)已被列入中国官方的两用物项出口管制清单。金属报告和公司披露确认，InP于2025年2月被置于出口许可证要求之下。 2026年1月关于日本的公告适用于中国两用物项出口管制清单上的所有物品（800-900项）。由于InP已在2025年最终确定为两用物项，因此自动包含在针对日本的新限制中。 $AXTI被允许向受出口管制和光学制造商限制的西方国家发货，但不允许向日本发货。（西方超大规模云服务商本来就是主要目标）住友将无法获得能够大规模生产成品所需的材料，因为中国控制了全球InP衬底生产所需的大部分关键材料。所以情况并不完全相同。

英文原文

So this is pretty nuanced but i'll try my best to explain: 1) It's actually a ban. Not just export controls. This refers to anything related to military end-users or for military purposes. For major defense contractors like, Sumitomo Electric, this is effectively a ban. There was also the Secondary Boycott rule, which directly impacts Sumitomo/JX: Eg. if another company buys InP feedstock then tries to transfer the feedstock/finish transceiver to a Japanese company, China could ban the related companies next. This part is really nuanced. So if you're wondering why US is fine under these export controls, US allowed Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China and in exchange, China "unlocked" the supply of raw materials like indium and gallium for U.S. commercial tech companies. This was Announcement No. 72, which suspended the strictest "principle bans" on "gallium, germanium, and indium" for U.S. civilian customers until nov 27, 2026. But implicitly, Microsoft, Lite, and others are treated more as commercial (even they're not, MSFT does serve the US gov), since this was an exchange to allow China train its AI models the critical materials. Unfortunately, Japan has no leverage like the US on this. 2) InP was already added to China's official dual use export control list prior to the 2026 announcement. Metal reports and company disclosures confirmed that InP were placed under export licensing requirements in February 2025. The Jan 2026 announcement regarding Japan applies to all items on China's dual use export control list (800-900 items). Since InP was already finalized as a dual-use item in 2025, it is automatically included in the new restrictions targeting Japan. $AXTI is allowed to ship to Western countries from export controls and optical makers but not to Japan. (Western hyperscalers are main target anyway) Sumitomo would not have the materials able to make the finished products to ship at scale since China controls majority of the world's critical materials required for inp substrate prod. So it's not quite the same position.

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