$NANYA

提及 2 首次 2026-02-03 最近 2026-03-25

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  1. 说自己年初看多 Nanya,没想到 SNDK 现在直接入股,暗示旧存储瓶颈可能被低估。

    哇,Nanya 年初还是我做多的标的…… 我完全没想到 $SNDK 现在居然刚刚入股了它 10 亿美元以上。 Sandisk 选择入股像 Nanya 这样的公司,说明 legacy memory 的瓶颈可能比市场想的更大、也更被低估。 这对 Macronix 以及其他台湾公司也有巨大的影响。 或者……$SNDK 只是 NAND 价格上涨赚太多了,正好找地方花钱?

    英文原文

    Woah Nanya was my long earlier in the year... Did not expect $SNDK to take a $1B+ stake in it just now. Fact that Sandisk is taking stakes in companies like Nanya, means bottleneck in legacy memory might be bigger / more underpriced than marketes thought. Massive implications for others like Macronix + other TW companies. Or... $SNDK just has too much money from NAND price hiking and needed somewhere to spend it?

  2. 美系大厂转向高利润AI内存,中国厂商冲击有限,主要影响传统DRAM厂。

    所以关于内存需求的那个说法是对的,但这并非文中所列公司的关注重点。 它们已基本放弃了YMTC/CXMT试图倾销的市场,转而追求利润率更高的超大规模AI基础设施建设,因此对$MU等公司影响甚微。 如果非要说有影响,那应该是打击像$NANYA和$WIN这样的传统型DRAM公司,这原本才是讨论的重点。 简而言之,$MU、$SKHYNIX和$SAMSUNG已基本清除了来自中国的市场需求(例如$MU约10%,$SKHYNIX约15-18%),并将DRAM晶圆产能转向HBM3e和HBM4。也许只有$SAMSUNG因其在移动/消费设备领域的份额而受到轻微影响。

    英文原文

    So that memory demand statement is true, but it's not the focus of the companies listed in the article. They've largely left the market YMTC/CXMT is trying to flood to go after the higher margin hyperscaler AI buildout, so little to no effect on companies like MIcron. If anything it would hurt legacy void type companies like Nanya + Winbond, which should have been the focus. Naunce is Micron, Sk Hynix, and Samsung have largely hollowed out their demand from China (eg. ~10% micron, ~15-18% Sk hynix), and shifted dram wafers to hbm3e and hbm4. Maybe only Samsung is slightly affected given their share with mobile/consumer devices.