· 方法论
相关概念： Pluggable 可插拔光模块
@dBooray @SoundResponse 我使用“管道收入”(pipeline revenue) 来评估其客户质量相对于此前管道收入预估的情况。例如，$JBL / $GFS 第一季度超过 7 亿美元，而第二季度增加了 6 家可插拔(pluggable)合作伙伴。这并非进行收入预测的理想指标，因为我认为一旦他们扩展产品线（例如向下游延伸至光引擎或完整可插拔模块），其可寻址市场(AM)和爬坡(ramp)表现会好得多。在此期间，我认为追踪 $JBL 的资格认证(qualification)爬坡以及建模为收入的晶圆产能，并假设在短缺情况下能售出，是更好的方法。
@dBooray @SoundResponse I use pipeline revenue as a measure est. quality of their customers relative to previous pipeline revenue estimates. Eg. Q1 $JBL / $GFS $700M+, vs. Q2. 6 pluggable partners added. Not really a good figure to go off for revenue projections, since I’d expect addressable market + ramp to be much better once they expand product lines (eg. More downstream into optical engines or complete pluggables). In the meantime I think it’s better to track $JBL / qualification ramps and wafer capacity modeled into revenue, and assume it gets sold given shortages.