· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $AXTI
还记得我去年对 $AXTI 的 InP substrate 瓶颈判断吗，anon？ IntelliEPI CEO（2026Q1 财报）： “Indium phosphide substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure.” Digitimes：Taiwan’s IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage 我当时就说，随着 photonics 放量，下一代 AI 架构全面转向光学后，InP 会出现重大瓶颈。 这是我关于 AXT 这个上游 chokepoint 最准确的一次判断。 我通常会比市场早几个月，但方向上经常会兑现。 当我已经在这些瓶颈里赚了 1800%+ 的时候，我现在又在做多 CPO，押下一个大超级周期。
Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon? IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER): "The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage" I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical. This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint. I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally. While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.