中文翻译
我不会说这只是投机。超大规模云厂商从 $LITE 到 $COHR 的订单都已经排到 2028 年了。 就连 $TSEM 也有 70% 的产能被预订，而且它 2028 年的前瞻市盈率也才大约 20 倍。 CW / CPO 对光子学来说更像是投机部分，而不是可插拔光模块周期本身。可相比存储 / GPU，它其实也算合理。 不过我觉得大家现在盯的光子瓶颈右边，像 PCB 之类，挺有意思的。
· 供应链分析
认为光子学并非纯投机，超大规模客户订单已排到 2028。
英文原文
I wouldn't say it's speculative. Hyperscalers have orders completely booked until 2028 from $LITE to $COHR. Even $TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028. CW/CPO more speculative for photonics, not the pluggable optical transceivers cycle. But compared to memory/GPUs, makes snse. But think everyones looking at photonics bottlenecks right low like pcb, which is funny