· 个股论点
涉及标的： $AXTI
对于Q X P，$AXTI 在中国对日本实施出口管制后，在光子学(Photonics)领域的AI基础设施建设中，既控制了数量（受监管的垄断）也控制了价格（规模垄断）。 双头垄断(Duopoly)的消亡彻底改变了原有的定价结构。 磷化铟(InP)的潜在市场规模(TAM)仅为数亿美元，因为它是一种小众的电信产品。现在，谷歌(Google)愿意支付数十亿美元，仅为了确保其整个TPU项目不会停滞。Meta、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon)、英伟达(Nvidia)等也是如此。于是，TAM突然从数亿美元飙升至100亿美元以上。 再说一次，我不知道这会走向何方，因为不可能对从未发生过的极端情景（一家小盘公司控制着万亿美元AI基建的两个关键瓶颈）进行建模。 但当一家公司控制了超大规模云服务商(Hyperscaler)扩展其项目所用材料的大部分供应链以及价格结构时，我认为其价值远高于13亿美元的市场资本化。
For Q X P, $AXTI controls both quantity (regulated monopoly) as well as price (monopoly at scale) for the AI buildout with photonics after China's export control on Japan. The death of a duopoly completely changed any former pricing structure there was. The TAM of InP was few hundred million because it's a niche telecom product. Now, Google would happily pay billions just so their entire TPU program doesn't stall out. Same goes for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and others. Then TAM suddenly goes from few hundred million to $10B+. Again I don't know where this heads, it's impossible to model an extreme scenario that's never happened before (one small cap company controlling two different critical bottlenecks for the trillion AI buildout). But when the company controls majority of the supply chain as well as price structure of a material used for every hyperscaler to scale out their programs, I place a lot more value on it than $1.3B market cap.