2026-01-06 · 个股论点

建仓$AIRO，看好其低估值及国防无人机订单带来的反弹机会。

中文翻译

我在 $AIRO 上建立了一个头寸，自3天前发布该帖以来已上涨+23%。尽管 $ONDS 备受炒作，市场似乎仍不了解这只航空航天与国防股票。这是一家无人机股票，市值约3亿美元，2026年预估收入超1.2亿美元（约2.5倍远期市销率）。其他同类公司交易倍数为30-40+倍，而像 $AVAV 这样的大公司交易倍数约为9.3倍市销率。这源于其2025-2026年1.9亿美元的订单指引，减去预估的2025财年约8690万美元及增长部分。该板块正迎来巨大顺风，来自委内瑞拉/乌克兰的军事冲突以及1万亿美元的国防部国防支出。 $AIRO 已拥有来自北约+乌克兰武装部队的订单积压，包括如 RQ-35 Heidrun 等无人机，专为GPS拒止环境设计（乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突）。由于其高管团队的历史，存在很大的执行不确定性，但我喜欢以下几点： - 无人机+国防板块变得极其火热 - 该股市销率处于极低水平 - 他们构建的东西很酷，就像我15美元买入 $RKLB 时一样 + 在2025年第三季度，AIRO 因发货延迟严重未达收入预期（报告630万美元 vs 较高预期）。然而，这只是递延收入，股价从30美元跌至10美元，我认为这是一个独特的机会。这只是一个“淋浴思考”帖，绝非深入尽职调查。关键在于执行，且该股似乎没有任何溢价。所以，我建仓 $AIRO 只是为了看看它会走向何方。

英文原文

I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago. Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype. It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s) Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger companies trade at ~9.3 p/s like $AVAV. This stems from their $190M guidance for 2025-2026 bookings subtracted by est. FY 2025 ~$86.9M + growth. There’s a huge tailwind for the sector coming from military conflicts in Venezuela/Ukraine and $1T DoD spending into defense. $AIRO already has order backlog from NATO + Ukraine armed forces for drones like RQ-35 Heidrun, designed for GPS-denied environments (Ukraine - Russia conflicts). There’s a lot of execution uncertainty due to their executive team history, but i like how: - Drone + Defense segment becoming extremely hot -this one trading at extremely low levels of P/S -what they’re building is cool like when I bought $RKLB at $15 + In Q3 2025, AIRO missed revenue expectations badly ($6.3M reported vs. higher expectations) due to shipment delays. However, this is just deferred revenue, the stock dropped from $30 -> $10, I thought this could be a unique opportunity. This is just a shower-thought post, by no means in-depth DD. Name of the game is execution, and this doesn’t seem to have any premiums. So, I’ve taken a position in $AIRO just to see where it goes.

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