· 供应链分析

对比NBIS与IREN的微软交易,指出NBIS收入溢价及IREN利润率被高估。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

是的!关于收入溢价的观点确实很有帮助。但我认为细微差别体现在 $MSFT 的交易中(这显示了 $NBIS 和 $IREN 每兆瓦的利润率差异)。 Nebius 的微软交易使其每兆瓦年的收入比 IREN 的微软交易高出约 19-20%。许多毛利率数据因资产负债表会计处理而被夸大,因此我发此帖以标准化利润率。 $IREN 的实际杠杆内部收益率可能更接近 20%,鉴于其与戴尔的数十亿美元支出,使用这一指标可能优于 85% 的项目息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)数据。 $MSFT 基于合理推测(结合靠近 Azure 服务器的地理位置和软件优势)更看重 $NBIS 的完整人工智能云平台。如果 $IREN 在顶层软件和基础设施即服务(IaaS)层面补齐短板,其未来利润率和合同有望缩小这一差距。

英文原文

Yep! Definitely some helpful points about the revenue premium. But I think the nuance did show up in the $MSFT deal (which shows the margin difference between $NBIS and $IREN per MW). Nebius’s MSFT deal gives it ~19–20% higher revenue per MW-year than IREN’s MSFT deal. A lot of the gross margin figures are inflated by balance sheet accounting, hence why I made this post to normalize margins. $IREN 's realized levered irr is probably closer to 20%, it's probably better to use that over the 85% project EBITDA figures since they're spending billions with Dell. $MSFT values $NBIS full AI cloud platform more from an educated guess (mix of location closer to azure servers and software). If $IREN closed the software on top level and iaas level, its future margins/contracts could close that gap.

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