· 供应链分析
涉及标的： $NVDA
相关概念： 光子学 PhotonicsPluggable 可插拔光模块
高盛在最近的一份报告中上调了全球光模块市场预测：- 2026年：677亿美元（上调33%）- 2027年：1314亿美元（上调81%）- 2028年：1485亿美元（上调115%）对于 $NVDA Rubin Ultra，高盛增加了其模型中每GPU的光模块数量：1.6T：0 -> 2；3.2T：3 -> 5。高盛还将2027年1.6T及以上产品的预测提高了61%……这也非常重大，预计硅光子( Silicon Photonics )渗透率为80%。因此，每芯片的光学内容更多 = 更多的连续波(CW)激光器，更多的绝缘体上硅(SOI)衬底，光学公司日子好过。
Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to: - $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026 - $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 - $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028 For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU: 1.6T: 0 -> 2 3.2T: 3 -> 5 GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated. So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.