中文翻译
我的假设是MMS使用了GARCH模型或基于长期平均值的波动率预测。韩国指数在过去10-20年间处于区间震荡。如果回顾往年，模型通常假设波动率在2年内会均值回归。但如果我们看微软对三星/SK海力士陡峭的营业利润预测，加上$MU/$SNDK等存储芯片固有的波动性，看涨期权将从波动率扩张中受益。因此，在我看来，远期隐含波动率存在定价偏差。
· 供应链分析
微软AI需求推高存储波动预期，远期隐含波动率或存在定价偏差。
英文原文
My assumption is MMS used garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages. Korean indexes were range bound for 10-20 years. If it looks at previous years, models typically assume volatility might re-revert to mean in 2 years. But if we look at MS's steep operating income projections on Samsung/Sk Hynix + inherent volatility with memory like $MU / $SNDK, it looks calls will benefit from vega expsnion. So further out IV looks to be mispriced from my view.