· 个股论点
涉及标的： $AXTI
$AXTI 盘后大跌 29.54%，原因如下： - 下调 2025 年第四季度营收预期至 2300 万美元中值，此前为 2700 万-3000 万美元。 我的看法：这对瓶颈论点无关紧要，因为价格冲击刚刚发生在 12 月 27 日左右至 1 月（现在）。这是过去的财报，我们关注的是拥有定价权从而带来高毛利的未来盈利预测。 - AXTI 收到出口管制延迟通知，预计将在 2026 年第一季度确认收入。 这只是确认了上一季度的积压订单。这不是收入损失。出口管制带来的延迟和风险是已知的。 简而言之：过去的财报对论点无关紧要，这些只是已知的延迟，收入将在下一季度确认。 更应关注从 12 月 27 日左右开始的需求挤压拐点，而非磷化铟(InP)热潮之前的积压营收。
$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on: - Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m. Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about future earning projections with inflated margins from pricing power. - AXTI received export control delays and expect to recognize the revenue Q1 2026. This just realizes the former backlog Q1. This is not lost revenue. Export controls have known delays and risks. TLDR: former earnings are immaterial to thesis and these are just known delays that recognizes the same revenue next quarter. Care more about what happens at the inflection point of demand squeeze starting ~Dec 27th onwards, not former backlogged earnings before the InP craze.