· 个股论点

澄清CES误导,认为$CRDO错杀,因内部线缆变更及光子学布局而加仓。

涉及标的:

中文翻译

我在$CRDO下跌25.7%时加仓,利用了CES上的信息误导。 1. 最初的大幅下跌是因为投资者在$AMZN数据中心发现了橙色和蓝色线缆(暗示$CRDO失去客户)。 实际情况是亚马逊仅为内部物流要求更改颜色——由Mizuho的Vijay Rakesh证实。 2. CES 2026主题演讲——第二次下跌是因为黄仁勋提到Rubin NVL72机架的“无缆”设计。 “无缆”说法特指连接GPU与NVLink交换机的内部铜背板(盲插中板)。 $CRDO的主要产品是有源电缆(AEC),用于机架外部连接服务器与网络交换机。Nvidia的“无缆”技术仅替换Credo未生产的内部部件。 黄仁勋确实提到了Spectrum-X以太网光子学,但$CRDO也在光子学领域运营,拥有“BlueBird”(光数字信号处理器)和“ZeroFlap”光模块。还有机架顶部连接,这是Credo的主营业务(也是未来2-3年能效最高的解决方案)。 正如我多次在$AXTI中指出的,人们对转向光子学存在更大担忧,但鉴于供应短缺,行业正走向混合模式(铜+光子学)。 总之,投资者只是不了解细微差别,并非故意散布虚假信息。 因此我个人加仓了$CRDO,因为其大部分市值因无关紧要且错误的消息被抹去。

英文原文

I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation. 1. Large drop initially was because investors spotted orange and blue cables in $AMZN DCs (implying $CRDO customer loss). All that happened was Amazon requested a color change for internal logistics. - confirmed by Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. 2. CES 2026 keynote - Second drop was Jensen Huang said "Cableless" design of Rubin NVL72 rack. The "cableless" claim refers specifically to the internal copper backplane (blind-mate midplane) that connects the GPUs to the NVLink switches within a single rack. $CRDO's main product is AEC, for outside of the racks that connect the entire server rack to the network switch. Nvidia's "Cableless" Tech only replaces internal parts Credo didn't make. Jensen did mention Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, but $CRDO is operating in the photonics space too with "BlueBird" (Optical DSPs) and "ZeroFlap" optics. And then there's Top of the Rack Connectivity, which is Credo's main business (which is the most power efficient solution for the next 2-3y). There are larger concerns over the shift to photonics (as I've pointed out with $AXTI multiple times), but industry is moving toward a hybrid model (copper + photonics) given the supply shortage. Again as an overview, investors just did not know the nuances, not intentional disinformation. So I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial + incorrect news.

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