· 供应链分析
我最大的猜测是，下跌很可能源于保证金上调的机制。但我希望我猜错了。 我们已看到芝加哥商品交易所(CME)提高保证金，例如白银从11%升至15%-16.5%+（今日生效），我猜测机构正利用此机会清除更多杠杆。 周五，市场目睹了白银的人为抛售，很可能是由于金银银行和基金在空头头寸上陷入亏损。 交易中的纸白银价格与实物需求（用于AI+工业）之间存在巨大的价格分化。 但一旦抛售结束，机构利用纸面清算进行净多头重新配置，我们很可能会看到大幅反弹，因为新任美联储主席引发的更广泛抛售更多是表象而非政策实质改变。 只是不知道时间框架。
My best guess is likely down due to mechanics of margin hikes. But I hope I'm wrong. We've seen CME increase margins eg. silver 11% -> 15%-16.5%+ values (taking effect today) and my guess is institutions use this opportunity to wipe out more leverage. On Friday, markets saw manufactured selloffs on Silver likely due to bullion banks and funds being underwater on shorts. There's a huge bifurcation in prices between Paper Silver being traded and the physical demand (used for AI + industrial). But once that sell-off is done and institutions use paper liquidations to net-reposition long, we'll likely see a wide recovery since a lot of what happened regarding broader selloff from the new Fed chair is optics rather than policy change. Just don't know timeframe.