· 个股论点
对于 $NBIS，散户很可能基于未平仓合约大量购买了云服务商(CSP)相关的短期看涨期权。 当做市商(MM)作为交易对手方时，会加剧任何价格波动。在此案例中，它放大了下行走势，大型对冲基金很可能在较高价位（可能配合针对 $ORCL 及整个板块的内幕负面报道）初期做空。 做市商的机械式对冲导致当 Nebius 股价在 135-140 美元区间时价格急剧下跌。 散户在看到几天红盘（下跌）后卖出股票只是自然结果。但散户卖出是愚蠢的，因为基本面将压倒任何机械对冲资金流。 我在另一篇帖子中提到，散户恐慌性抛售影响的是最后成交价。机构能够通过暗池和大宗交易在不影响公开账本的情况下进行更多积累。
With $NBIS, retail likely did a lot of CSP + short dated calls from open interest. When MMs act as the counterpart, it exacerbates any movement. In this case, it amplified downward movement, with large hedge fund likely shorting initially at higher prices (probably timed with The Insider hit piece like with $ORCL and the whole sector short). There's mechanical hedging from MMs which causes sharply price to drop when Nebius was around $135-$140. Retail selling their shares after seeing few days of red is just a natural consequence. But it's stupid for retail to sell fundamentals will outweigh any mechanical hedging flows. I mentioned in my other post that retail panic selling affects price last traded. Institutions are able to accumulate more without affecting open books through dark pools and block trades.