中文翻译
你们严重低估了供应链和能源危机的二阶、三阶、四阶影响。 如果伊朗把阿联酋和中东大量油田炸掉并造成扰乱。 那边很多机构主要是在给美国私募、巨头公司等提供资金，他们可能不得不撤资，从 capex 支出到流动性都会引发大范围中断。 这还没算日本、韩国这些亚洲伙伴，它们在石油、LNG、能源等方面并没有美国那么自给自足。 全球经济现在是极度互联的。即便美国没事，供应链也不会没事。 而且你会在流动性、财报和股价上都看到这些影响。
· 方法论
解释战争对供应链和能源危机的二阶影响被低估了。
英文原文
This is vastly underestimating second, third, fourth order effects of supply chains and the energy crisis. If Iran blows up a lot of oil fields in UAE and the Middle East and causes disruptions. Lot of institutions over there largely funding US private equities, megacap, and others may have to pull out funding, causing widescale disruptions from capex spend to liquidity. This is also ignoring Asian partners from Japan, KR, that is not as self-sustaining as the US is in regards to oil, LNG, energy, and others. The global economy is extremely interconnected now. Even if the US is fine, the supply chains won't be. And you'll see this showing up in both liquidity, earnings, and stock price.