中文翻译
我在伊朗冲突前做过分析，并用石油多头如 $CVX 进行对冲。我卖出了很多亚洲股票如Unimicron和Nanya，获取已实现短期资本利得。 我已经做过石油/LNG/氦气的分析，发现对利润率影响很小到轻微，但主要影响毛利率较低的5-10%的公司，而不是像Samsung/SK Hynix这样的内存公司。所以我个人方向性做多，虽然隐含波动率(IV)交易结果不错。 如果油价极高，我预期会有Taco或美国干预，所以我不看好持续高企的原油价格。
· 供应链分析
分析伊朗冲突油价对供应链影响，低毛利率企业受冲击大于内存公司，看空持续高油价。
涉及标的： $CVX
英文原文
I did before the Iran conflict and hedged with oil longs like $CVX. I sold off a lot of Asian names like Unimicron and Nanya for realized short term capital gains. I already did an analysis on oil/lng/helium and found their to be little to slightly moderate affect on margins, but mainly affects companies with lower gross margins sitting at 5-10% rather than memory ones like Samsung/SK Hynix. So I’m personally directionally long although the IV trade turned out well. If oil prices are extremely high, I expect a Taco or US intervention so I’m not bullish on sustained high crude prices