中文翻译
主要观点是市场正在定价成本上升(如原油、LNG),但可能忽略了这些成本会转嫁给超大规模云服务商,因为他们正在争夺产能分配。当然,情况是多方面的,涉及可能的货币贬值、获利了结以及去杠杆。但最终,自由现金流(FCF)、盈利等基本面才是最重要的。我不认为SK海力士和三星不会转嫁成本并进一步推高内存价格。内存需求也不像2022年那样在消费/笔记本领域出现下滑。
· 供应链分析
主要观点是市场正在定价成本上升(如原油、LNG),但可能忽略了这些成本会转嫁给超大规模云服务商,因为他们正在争夺产能分配。当然,情况是多方面的,涉及可能的货币贬值、获利了结以及去杠杆。但最终,自由现金流(FCF)、盈利等基本面才是最重要的。我不认为SK海力士和三星不会转嫁成本并进一步推高内存价格。内存需求也不像2022年那样在消费/笔记本领域出现下滑。
The main thing was that markets were pricing increased costs eg. crude, LNG, but they're probably missing that it would just get passed onto hyperscalers as they battle for allocation. But of course it's multifaceted, with possible currency devaluation, profit taking, then deleveraging. But in the end fundamentals regarding FCF, earnings, and others are what matters most. And I don't see a world where SK Hynix, Samsung don't pass on costs and hike memory costs more. Memory demand is also not on a downturn like 2022 for consumer/laptop segments.