· 个股论点
涉及标的： $META
我在 $META 625美元处加仓了。 我的理论是： 《大而美法案》(Big beautiful bill) 搞砸了他们上次财报，尽管业绩超预期。 这引发了投机性的算法抛售，因为每股收益(EPS)看起来人为偏低（环比下降80%）。 下一次财报将反向运作。 第四季度(Q4)财报 -> EPS看起来人为偏高（例如环比增长700%+）-> 高频交易(HFT)算法买入股票。 Meta 同比增长26%，尽管资本支出(capex)巨大，但盈利能力极强。 第四季度的季节性因素（例如假日广告收入）也应该是一个助推器。 鉴于16日有大量未平仓合约(open interest)以及潜在的美伊冲突，很难精准抄底，但这里看起来是一个很好的多头(long)机会。特别是如果我想交易算法对会计因素(accounting alpha)反应带来的阿尔法收益。 听起来很蠢，但市场有时就是这样运作的，看重表象(optics)。我们看看是否正确。
I added positions in $META at $625 My theory: Big beautiful bill wrecked their last earnings despite record beat. This caused an speculated algorithmic selloff from artificially low looking EPS (-80% drop) This works in reverse for next earnings. Q4 earnings -> EPS looks artificially high (eg. 700%+ q/q growth)-> HFT algorithms buy stock. Meta grew 26% Y/Y and is stupidly profitable despite any capex spend. Seasonality from Q4 (eg. Ad revenue from holidays) should also be a booster. Hard to bottom time given large open interest on 16th and potential Iran US conflicts, but looks like a great long here. Especially if I want to trade the accounting alpha in how algorithms react. Sounds really stupid but markets work that way sometime with optics. We’ll see if it’s right or not.