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解析委内瑞拉政权疑似持有60万枚BTC的来源及估值逻辑

中文翻译

如果有人好奇这 60 万枚 BTC 数据的来源: 1) 威尔逊中心(Wilson Center)和路透社(Reuters)估计,马杜罗政权在 2018 年清算了约 73 吨黄金,价值约 27 亿美元。 2) 拥有 HUMINT(人力情报)来源的 Whale Hunting 评估认为,这笔资金立即被转换为比特币以规避美国财政部冻结,当时可能形成了约 40 万枚 BTC 的“影子储备”。 3) 原油销售等其他事件也增加了这一储备。 由于委内瑞拉一直在积极规避制裁,且无法通过链上分析确认,具体数量未知。但估计该储备量在此水平,这也是可能被没收的资产潜在规模。 当时比特币价格约为 3000 美元至 10000 美元,大部分数值增长来自比特币随时间的价格升值。

英文原文

If people were curious about sources for this 600K BTC figure: 1) Wilson Center and Reuters est. Maduro regime liquidated ~73 tons in gold in 2018 for ~$2.7 billion. 2) Whale Hunting with HUMINT sources assess that this capital was immediately converted into Bitcoin to avoid US Treasury freezes, potentially creating a "shadow reserve" of ~400,000 BTC at that point in time. 3) There's been other events from Crude Oil sales that added to this stockpile The number is unknown as Venezuela has been actively avoiding sanctions and this is unable to be confirmed through chain analysis. However, there's estimates that the pile sits around this figure and this is the potential amount of assets to be seized. This was back when Bitcoin was roughly $3k-$10k and most of the figures come from Bitcoin price appreciation over time.

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